Commodity Online
Plantation crops have witnessed a bullish trend in 2009 and natural rubber was a leader in that pack. TOCOM rubber futures are expected to climb back to 2008 peak levels while tea, cardamom and coffee prices are already ruling high.

The individual auction average price of cardamom crossed Rs 1,000 a kg for the first time at Bodinayakannur on Sunday. The price reached Rs 1,025.79 a kg at the auction held by the Idukki District Spices Marketing and Processing Company. Another record was also last week when a lot of 9mm capsules fetched the highest-ever price of Rs 1,506.50 a kg at the auction conducted by MAS Enterprises at Vandamettu, Kerala. Another lot was sold at Rs 1,500 a kg.

Cotton production world-wide is likely to rise by over 8% in the 2010-11 season on higher output in the US and China following high prices, according to International Cotton Advisory Committee.

The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent this year and may soon return to sustained high growth path of 9-10 per cent, Prime Minister said at a recent conference of non-resident Indians. Manmohan Singh said the government would like to address key constraints in the infrastructure and the agriculture sectors Amidst sugar prices touching Rs 44 a kg in the retail market, the government today said it is keeping a watch on the prices.

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The Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies could face serious problems of storage once the procurement of wheat commences in the ensuing Rabi market season if it does not offload on priority the wheat stocks currently with it. Apprehensions over the impending wheat storage problems were expressed at an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) headed by FM Pranab Mukherjee in mid December.

The Shipping Ministry is taking all possible measures to encourage private sector investment in the shipping sector as major ports alone require over Rs 36,000 crore private investments by March 2012.

Precious Metals
After five days of continuous losses, US gold prices gained on Friday due to disappointing US unemployment data which showed US employers shed more than expected 85000 jobs in December. Spot Gold at New York rose to $1139.30 while on Thursday it was trading at $1131. The fall of dollar against Euro was also supportive for the yellow metal. The first US platinum and palladium backed exchange traded product which gives investors access to industrial metals used in autocatalysts generated significant trading volume on first day at 400, 000 contracts.

On Friday, spot silver in New York tracked gold prices and rose to $18.44 while platinum rose to 16-month high of $1576.50 while Palladium rose to $425. The rise in automobile sales in China and several countries are supportive of platinum used in auto catalysts. With economic recovery hopes still not very evident and inflationary concerns still looming large on the horizon, analysts expect Spot Gold to rise to $1500 in the medium term although in the short run prices may touch only $1200 levels. MCX Feb gold is seen bullish opening last week at 16716 and closing at Rs 16900 levels.

Energy
Crude oil prices could trade with a positive bias as the US and China faces a strong winter. Severe winter would translate into more demand for oil from the heating and electricity demand. 'In the background, exceptionally cold temperature patterns not only in the US but across much of Europe and China are taking a large chunk out of the distillate and gasoil supply overhang.

Economic growth in the emerging markets could also continue to drive energy demand. If recovery in the Western world follows suit then there could be a far bigger upswing in demand. There are serious risks here for the economic recovery. If the cold weather continues, the price of oil may rise. That would make life more expensive for consumers and businesses. Oil is the single biggest driver of inflation as it plays a part in making or moving nearly all consumer goods. If inflation rises significantly, central banks would be forced to raise interest rates to control it. Energy Information Administration reported that US stockpiles of crude were up last week.

The EIA reported that crude oil inventories grew by 1.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles jumped by 3.7 million barrels against an expected gain of only 1.2 million barrels. Distillates in storage, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, was down by 300,000 barrels, but they had been expected to drop by 1.8 million barrels. Though oil prices have risen sharply, the current inventory scenario continues to play as a bearish factor. Severe winter in the US and China, Weakness in US Dollar and expectations of a rise in demand in 2010 may provide support to bulls in short term. MCX January Crude Oil Contract shall find a strong support at 3700/3655 levels and resistance at 3850/3875 levels for the coming week.

Base Metals
The base metals pack led by copper was bullish in 2009 with the red metal rising 140%. The trend continued into New Year as US Commerce Department data showed that new orders at US factories rose 1.1% in November. This led to MCX Februrary contract rising to a contract high of Rs 354.20 before settling lower on Friday at Rs 344 as China’s monetary policy spread gloom across the industrial metals sector. LME 3-month delivery contract had peaked to a 16 month high of $7796 before sliding down to $7500 levels. Production in China's factories rose in December on the back of bulging order books, while manufacturing in the United States grew for a fifth consecutive month.

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