Soybean
Soybean (NCDEX December contract) futures closed slightly lower as compared to previous week on account of profit taking after a sharp rally during the last two weeks on account of lower domestic soybean production estimates by COOIT. Poor export demand of domestic soy meal and bearish USDA’s Monthly supply and demand report also added bearish market sentiments. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association, India's oil-meal exports in the first seven months of the fiscal year declined to 15 lakh tonnes from 27 lakh tonnes a year earlier. Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 428.9 million tons, up 3.6 million from last month, it may provide support to bears in the market. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 97.8 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month due to higher soybean production. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 63 million tons, up 1 million from last month. Argentina soybean production is raised 0.5 million tons to 53 million. Global oilseed stocks for 2009/10 are raised 3.1 million tons to 69.0 million. NCDEX December Contract shall find strong support at 2270/2235 and resistance at 2350/2400.

Turmeric
Spot prices of Turmeric in the major mandis of Nizamabad and Erode were quoted at around 12500-12800/qtl. The reason behind such surge in the prices was lower stocks and demand from the domestic market/stockists ahead of winter season. Domestic consumption of turmeric stands around 3.5 lakh bags per month (each bag weighs 70-75 kgs). Turmeric stocks are around 8-9 lakh bags till the fresh crop arrivals in the month of February 2010. Turmeric production in the year 2009-2010 is expected to be better at around 4.12 lakh tonnes. Thus, demand/supply dynamics would rule the prices in the short term (till December). Further, demand from the domestic market ahead of winter season is likely to provide support to the prices. In the medium to long term (January 2010 onwards) prices may be determined by the demand from the domestic and overseas market and clear figure of domestic production. Technically prices have strong support at around 11,200/qtl and thereafter around Rs.10,500/qtl. Resistance is likely to be seen around 11,800/qtl and thereafter around Rs.12300/qtl.

Rubber
Rubber continues to be steady with bullish sentiments likely for the medium term as domestic supply is expected to lag demand in 2009-10. India’s natural rubber output fell 9.5% to 4,35,125 from April-October period while consumption has risen to 5,36,100 tonnes, a gain of 3%. Global cues are also supportive for spot and pepper futures as economic recovery has already been set in motion in some countries and crude oil prices above $80 raises prices of competing synthetic rubber. Last week, spot prices hovered near to Rs 109 per kg for RSS4 to Rs 110. Rubber futures at NMCE also showeda steady trend with November futures moving in a narrow range from 110-112 while December Futures was steady in the weekend at Rs 113. Going ahead demand-supply mismatch is bound to continue as it will widen to 4-5 lakh tonnes by 2014-15 thereby giving a long-term bullishness to prices

On the downside production of rubber is set to intensify from November-January period which will arrest the uptrend. Spot rubber and near-month contract at NMCE to hover at 112-115 range next week. Any fall below Rs 110 may set a downtrend towards Rs 107 levels. NCDEX November may revisit Rs 15000 levels and stay put while December contract may rise to Rs 5200 levels.

Wheat Futures
Globally, wheat futures are on a bull run on speculation that more US crop will be used to feed livestock as corn futures have gained 22% in the past two months. In India, firm spot demand has raised most traded NCDEX December contract to near Rs 14000 levels last week. On the downside, prices were capped by government announcement of release of 3 million tonnes of wheat in next six months and increased output during upcoming rabi season. India aims to raise annual output in 2009 by 2 million tonnes to 82 million tonnes. India’s falling rice output this kharif season is to be compensated by higher rabi wheat output, according to Ministry of Agriculture.

Wheat December futures which began the week at Rs 1370 rose to 1390 on Friday on firm spot demand although rains in major growing regions has raised hopes of higher output thus capping the uptrend. CBOT futures witnessed a rally that saw prices gain 13% to $5.59 a bushel on improved demand. It was the largest rally in two months as wheat prices gained 20%. As corn prices rose, wheat becomes a cheaper alternative as feed source. It is reported that 190 mn tonnes of wheat will be used in this marketing year ending May 2009 for use as feed.

Chana
India’s benchmark November chana futures at NCDEX fell this week on profit taking in the beginning of the week to Rs 2517 after witnessing a rise of 13% on the month while spot prices fell back to Rs 2500 levels in Delhi. Futures rose to 2546 mid week but could not be sustained. Chana November futures ended lower at Rs 2495 on Friday as ample stocks from last year’s harvest, firm prices of other pulses weighed on sentiments. The slide was limited by lower acreage in Rajasthan although Ministry of Agriculture data showed acreage up as on November 12 for major pulses varieties-tur, moong and urad.
Rains in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh has helped in Rabi sowing on increased soil moisture levels.
Pepper
Pepper futures exhibited weakness and volatility last week although fundamentals were supportive of Black Gold. The cheaper Brazilian crop weighed on market sentiments although low stocks and rising domestic demand helped prices to remain steady. NCDEX November futures surged Rs 294 to Rs 15068 and December futures soared by Rs 308 to Rs 15280 on Tuesday on low stocks and delayed harvests and continued the uptrend on Wednesday but dropped below Rs 15000 levels on Thursday as markets turned volatile on bears and bulls taking on each other. The NCDEX November held steady towards weekend and closed at Rs 14930 on Friday. The north-east monsoon has arrived, albeit delayed, in the growing areas and it might delay the harvesting of the next crop. The dealers and growers who are holding stocks might stop liquidation so as to arrest any further fall in the prices, according to market reports. The appreciation of the rupee sent the Indian parity to $3425 as against the previously prevailing $3300 while Brazilian parity was available for $3000. Pepper continues to be supported in the near term on rising demand and lower stocks but fresh crop arrivals from January in Vietnam and India may cap medium term gains. (With analytical inputs from Angel Commodities, Mumbai)

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