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The copper price has traded above the marginal cost since 2004, and in our view, will continue to do so while supply faces structural headwinds.

20 Nov 2012

LONDON (Commodity Online): A global financial services firm Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) said that copper in 2013 will have a higher annual average price versus 2012, saying it disagrees with the growing market perception of a looming supply glut that will detrimentally affect the red metal price.

Copper prices closed above $7,800 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange for the first time in over two weeks on Monday with $200 added to the previous close as markets bought riskier assets.

“While we certainly identify the beginnings of an impending supply response, we remain skeptical about the industry's ability to deliver on its current timetable of incremental and greenfield capacity growth,” the New York based firm added.

“The copper price has traded above the marginal cost since 2004, and in our view, will continue to do so while supply faces structural headwinds,” Morgan Stanley concluded.

Three-month copper added 2.6% on a close-to-close basis on Monday, finishing the day at $7,804 per tonne, the highest level since November 1.


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