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After oil, coal is expected to be the slowest growing major fuel, with demand rising on average 1.2% a year to 2030.

17 Jan 2013

LONDON(Commodity Online): Crude Oil is expected to be the slowest growing of the major fuels to 2030, with demand growing at an average of just 0.8% a year, according to BP Energy Outlook 2030. Nonetheless, this will still result in demand for oil and other liquid fuels being 16 million barrels a day higher in 2030 than 2011, the report added.

All the net demand growth will come from outside the OECD – demand growth from China, India and the Middle East will together account for almost all of net demand growth.

Strong growth in production from unconventional sources of gas and oil will have a major impact on global energy markets to 2030, redefining expectations for major economies and rebalancing global trade flows, according to the outlook.

The Outlook’s overall expectation for growth in global energy demand to 2030 is little changed from last year, with demand expected to be 36% higher in 2030 than 2011 and almost all the growth coming from emerging economies. However, expectations of the pattern of supply of this growth are shifting strongly, with unconventional sources – shale gas and tight oil together with heavy oil and biofuels – playing an increasingly important role and, in particular, transforming the energy balance of the US.

The Outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase at an average of 1.6% a year to 2030. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2% a year to 2020 and then by only 1.3% a year to 2030. 93% of this growth will come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. By 2030, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 61% higher than in 2011 whereas use in the OECD will have grown by only 6%, and actually to have fallen in per capita terms.

While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26-28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – on a share of around 6-7% each.

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing of the fossil fuels – with demand rising at an average of 2% a year. Non-OECD countries will generate 76% of demand growth. Shale gas supplies are expected to meet 37% of the growth in gas demand and account for 16% of world gas and 53% of US gas production by 2030.

After oil, coal is expected to be the slowest growing major fuel, with demand rising on average 1.2% a year to 2030. Over the period, growth flattens to just 0.5% a year after 2020. Nearly all (93%) of the net growth in demand to 2030 will come from just China and India, whose combined share of global coal consumption will rise from 57% in 2011 to 65% in 2030. India is expected to overtake US as second largest coal consumer in 2024.

Renewables will continue to be the fastest growing class of energy, gaining market share from a small base as they rise at an average of 7.6% a year to 2030.While the rate of growth is moderating, carbon emissions are still expected to increase by 26% from 2011 to 2030, the report added.

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