Last Updated :
02 June 2009 at 18:50 IST
Dollar weakness rekindles fund buying for gold
By Jon Nadler
Price firmness continued to be manifest in bullion as the New York session got underway this morning. Overnight, mild selling overseas brought gold to lows near $968 per ounce. However persistent dollar weakness rekindled fund buying and values returned to above $980 as Tuesday dawned.
The trade will focus on the achievement of the four-digit mark, and as we told Bloomberg Radio yesterday, it may be a matter of hours until the third such try turns successful. Sources say that stops are in the market at 960 below and at $1010 above, but the arm-wrestling match to turn the market tide will (still) remain a dollar-centric issue. As it has been for the past month.
New York spot dealings recorded an $8 advance out of the gate for gold, which was quoted at $982.60 basis spot bid, against a backdrop that saw the dollar at 78.84 on the index, but also had crude oil on the retreat, at $68.05 per barrel. If you care to call a 53-cent drop a 'retreat' following that which oil prices have pulled off over the last month...
Silver gained 12 cents to rise to $15.71 an ounce, while platinum climbed $8 to $1217 and palladium was ahead by $3 at $242 per ounce. GM's asset sales could start very soon, following court approval of such plans. Its Hummer unit was already snapped up by a (for now) mystery buyer. Perhaps some Arab potentate who cannot live with the thought of not tearing up sand dunes with a fine buggy that offers gas mileage in the teens - at best.
Well, as expected, this week's focus is sharply angled towards the Tim Geithner Show underway in Beijing. Far from being a "Chi-Com butt-kissing pilgrimage" as Mr. Limbaugh's disciples would label the trip, Mr. Geithner's presence is designed to bring some touchy issues to the forefront. One of those issues, of course, is the yuan. But, also as expected, the Chinese currency and its value were cleverly not tabled in this round.
The dollar, and its medium-term fate, on the other hand, were given ample airtime. And then some. Mostly dollar-positive statements emerged from various talks, press briefings, and assorted high-level mingling. The corollary? Mr. Geithner was “completely confident” -in that Marc Faber kind of way - that Bernanke could keep inflation low and stable, after the extraordinary measures currently in motion are siphoned out of the economy.
Marketwatch confirms that the dollar came under broad selling pressure on Monday as equity and commodity markets surged. Those moves reflected rising appetite for risk on growing expectations the worst of the global recession has passed, analysts said. They cautioned, however, that markets may be getting ahead of the game, leaving room for a near-term reversal of recent moves in the currency markets. "We are less optimistic at this stage and suggest taking some profit from pro-risk trades," wrote strategists at BNP Paribas.
Whether the Chinese (aside from one very vocal former Cenbank advisor) wanted to keep jumping up and down and display more overt concerns was not to be gleaned from this series of tete-a-tete sessions. And, as one analyst puts it in a Bloomberg piece this morning, why would they?
“China will be shooting themselves in the foot if they push this issue too hard,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “If they are too alarmist and contribute substantially to a dollar and Treasuries sell off, they are going to feel more pain than just about anybody in the world.”
In a separate interview with foreign media this morning, Geithner said that Chinese officials led by Vice Premier Wang Qishan had focused on the economic recoveries of the U.S., China and the world. They hadn’t expressed concern about the safety of Treasuries or the U.S.’s ability to unwind financial rescue programs and return to living within its means, he said. He said the Chinese “expect the dollar to be the principal reserve currency for a long period of time -- as do we.”
Quick, someone tell Rush that there is a chance the Obama administration and its plans might succeed. Awww...
And now, for something completely...the same. A gut-level (Rush - gut - thinking get it?) review of gold. Gold, the emotion-laden metal. Already known to be a Jungian archetype, the metal continues to fascinate - in far greater ways that the silly daily price obsession so many are still caught up in.
Elite UK private banking house Coutts & Co. offers this mini-lesson in gold history. The article was written for wealthy women and although it reads like a World Gold Council 'timeless allure' piece, we cannot help but read between the lines and find a soft-sell invitation to invest in the metal. In more ways than just wearing it. Well, perhaps there is a buying segment that cares not about $1,000 an ounce bullion...
" Its selling point in 2600 BC was pretty special: alleged divinity and an indestructible nature.
Fast forward nearly five millennia, and its exclusive appeal has morphed into something rather contemporary: on wintry nights, London's uber-wealthy nightowls can sip it in 24-carat leaf form as part of a £35,000 'Flawless' cocktail in London's Movida nightclub.
Gold really needs no introduction today given its ubiquity in modern society. It shows a remarkable hold on our collective imagination, one that has been mythologised and wrapped up in notions of cultural wealth and health despite eye-popping volatility in its market price.
Yet an extraordinary history that has taken it from a precious metal dug out of the ground by ancient Egyptian fingers, to a key ingredient in a flash 21st century bar drink, reveals more than a versatile 'precious metal' desired by millions as a throwaway symbol of wealth. It shows a remarkable hold on our collective imagination, one that has been mythologised and wrapped up in notions of cultural wealth and health despite eye-popping volatility in its market price.
Lest no one forget, gold is simply a chemical element whose symbol is 'Au' and found as metal grains or nuggets underground or in rich deposits from flowing waters. But in such technicality lies a clue to its grip on our desire; 'Au' is from the Latin for aurum, which translates as 'shining dawn'.
Gold's whole history is tied into this reflective quality, its luxuriant allure and dazzling colour making it highly attractive for rituals and ornaments for the Ancient Egyptians. But its scientific properties have lent it real power: chemically, it is largely unaffected by heat, moisture, air and other corrosive elements.
For early civilisations, this meant it could be a 'store of value' and paved the way for countless opportunities for using gold as payments for goods and services. The Egyptians' fascination with gold passed to the Greeks and, in turn, the Romans, who began mining it devotedly across their Empire. It wasn't until the late 13th century when the Venetians minted the 'Ducat' and the 'Florin' appeared in Great Britain, that the gold coin began to settle as a key currency.
As European nations fought wars to grow in economic and military might, so gold's importance grew. But it wasn't until its discovery in huge deposits around the world (Brazil, Russia and America in the late 18th century, and South Africa in 1868 ) and the 'gold rushes' that ensued, that enough wealth for it to develop into a benchmark, or 'standard' for other currencies, was created.
For some fifty years up to the 1930s, a panoply of industrialised countries including Britain, the US, Germany and Holland adopted the 'Gold Standard' as their choice of currency 'measure'; quite simply, the worth of their own national currency would be calculated in terms of a fixed weight of gold.
In practice, this meant little exchange rate volatility which helped to foster global trade and ushered in a spurt of economic prosperity. But the crushingly heavy financial price exacted by the First World War piled pressures onto national currencies, whose value buckled in relation to the Gold Standard and forced many to leave.
As the Great Depression took hold of the US in the 1930s and then spread around the world, no country could pin its currency against the Gold Standard. Its lustre dimmed further in 1944, when towards the close of the Second World War, a new world system of foreign exchange was introduced (named after Bretton Woods in the US where it was signed) and based on fixed rates against…not gold, but the US dollar.
Although the greenback was still itself backed by gold, and set at $35 an ounce, it only lasted until 1971 when the US, whose own gold cupboards were looking a little bare at a time when it was facing a huge hole in its domestic budget, abandoned gold altogether.
But while the global money markets are now based on floating currencies, gold's role in the world economy has changed too. In the buoyant luxury goods market, gold jewellery can command stratospheric prices thanks both to demand from customers as well as gold's high price in the world's commodity markets.
A small role in early transistor development by US telecoms giant AT&T, has led to widespread industrial use in electronics thanks to gold's conductivity and resistance to corrosion; and it can be found in high-quality video, audio and USB cables the world over. However, gold's dominance today as one of the world's most sought-after materials is down to its symbolism in our 'aspirational' society.
Happily, millennia of cultural baggage have left it in pole position as a reward for achievement; from Olympic gold medals to Nobel prizes through to Academy Awards and the Cannes Film Festival's 'Palme d'Or' for best film. In the buoyant luxury goods market, gold jewellery can command stratospheric prices thanks both to demand from customers as well as gold's high price in the world's commodity markets.
Sadly, gold also continues to beget greed: targeted in heists such as Brinks Mat in 1983, its ability to be melted down and sold on has long attracted a criminal element. This appeal has also made it the star subject of countless gangster film plots including The Italian Job, Goldfinger and Three Kings.
Yet it's gold's diversity in our 21st century consumerist society that grants it special status. Whether it's a tooth in your mouth; part of your food (it even has an E number, E175); or glittering necklace around your neck, gold will find new ways of staying au courant. Its shine will see to that."
MCX CARDAMOM 01 January 2020
contract was trading at
Rs 0 . What's your view on it?
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