Last Updated :
11 March 2010 at 10:50 IST
El Nino to trim farm output in South East Asia
BANGKOK (Commodity Online) : The El Nino weather phenomenon that hit most of South East Asian region might hit Thailand severely this year, warns country’s Office of Agricultural Economics.
In a report issued here it said rice production in Thailand, the world’s largest exporter, may decline as drier-than-normal weather curbs yields, adding to signs that an El Nino may be hurting farm output across the region.
“Unmilled rice output in the next crop year may fall below the average production level of 31 million tons if El Nino puts off rainfall”, the report said.
Thailand accounts for about a third of the global trade in rice. Lower production of rice from Thailand and palm oil from Malaysia caused by the dry weather may drive commodity prices higher, spurring food inflation.
Thai output of unmilled rice in the year that started Oct. 1 may be between 27 million and 29 million tons. That’s unchanged from a forecast on Jan. 13, and 15 percent lower than the previous year’s 31.7 million tons.
The El Nino weather phenomenon, characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, can cut rainfall in Asia.
Among the expected impacts from this month to May are drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia, according to a March 4 report from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
Palm oil, about 90 percent of which is produced in Indonesia and Malaysia, may surge this year as the El Nino curbs yields.
Drought is spreading in 36 of Thailand’s 76 provinces, mostly in the North and Northeast, which are major planting areas of rice and sugar.
The Mekong River, which flows from China through five countries in Southeast Asia, is at its lowest level in 30 years near Thailand’s border with Laos, Thailand’s Department of Water Resources said.
A drought in southern China, including Yunnan province, has left rivers at record lows, the Ministry of Water Resources said yesterday.
Dry weather from El Nino has damaged 200,000 tons of rice in the Philippines, the world’s largest importer.
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