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Gold Bubble: Jim Rogers lambasts Nouriel Roubini

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NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The differences of opinion on gold forecast by Jim Rogers and Nouriel Roubini are turning sharp and deep. Global commodities investor Rogers has once again lambasted Roubini for predicting that gold price is on a bubble that will burst soon.

“I am flabbergasted at Roubini’s comment about bubbles because there is not a single market in the world making all-time highs except gold, US Government Bonds, Cocoa, and the Sri Lankan stock market. That’s hardly reason to call for a bubble. So, I am most perplexed about this alleged bubble which is out there,” Rogers, who is now settled in Singapore and an aggressive investor in Chinese agri commodities market, told Wall Street Cheat Sheet.

Rogers has been arguing that gold price is rising thanks to the declining US dollar value and the yellow metal will surge to touch $2,000 per ounce in the next decade. Roubini, a respected economist, has been predicting that the recent gold price rise has been brought about by speculation in the bullion market and gold prices will crash as the yellow metal is sitting on a bubble.

Last month, Roubini had blasted Rogers for predicting that gold price would hit $2,000, saying the Rogers' prediction on gold price was "utter nonesense."

Here is what Roubini said:

“Gold has no intrinsic value, there are significant risks of a downward correction. Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities -- and in bullishness about the U.S. dollar.

Another downside risk is that the dollar-funded carry trade may unravel, crashing the global asset bubble that it, together with the wave of monetary liquidity, has caused. And, since the carry trade and the wave of liquidity are causing a global asset bubble, some of gold's recent rise is also bubble-driven, with herding behavior and "momentum trading" by investors pushing gold higher and higher. But all bubbles eventually burst. The bigger the bubble, the greater the collapse.

The recent rise in gold prices is only partially justified by fundamentals. Nor is it clear why investors should stock up on gold if the global economy dips into recession again and concerns about a near depression and rampant deflation rise sharply. If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities that you can actually use in your log cabin.”

Rogers has counter-argued saying how can Roubini talk about a gold bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high.

“A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets,” Rogers said.

“Since Roubini thought oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009, I would love for him to tell me and the rest of the world exactly where are all the oil supplies because the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which has the best global data set on energy supplies — has no idea where is the oil. Roubini should tell us where this price suppressing oil supply is hidden. All the oil possessing countries in the world have declining reserves. All the oil companies have declining reserves. So Roubini must know something the rest of us don’t,” Rogers pointed out.

Rogers further stated:

I hope you will keep Mr. Roubini’s statement where he said gold going to $2,000 an ounce by 2019 is “utter nonsense.” I think you’re going to get a chance to call him before 2019 to ask him what he thinks of gold at $2,000 and why he thought it was “utter nonsense.”

Regarding variables, it’s very clear there is huge suspicion about paper money around the world. This suspicion is gathering steam. Governments are printing huge amounts of money. This has always led to higher prices. Maybe I am wrong and it’s different this time. But I doubt it.

Additionally, no new large gold mines have been opened in decades. Some of those mines are over 100-years old. They are all depleting. On the other hand, central banks have huge gold reserves above ground — and they are less interested in selling than in the past.

If you adjust gold for inflation and go back to it’s former all-time high in 1980, gold should be over $2,000 an ounce right now if you want to say it’s reaching new inflation adjusted all-time highs. That does not mean gold has to get back to a true all-time high. Nothing has to. However, I suspect that given all the money printing in the world, we will see much higher prices for hard assets.

Despite gold’s potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee — all of which are terribly depressed.
MCX GOLD.995 05 June 2012 contract was trading at Rs 28259 , up Rs. 139 . What's your view on it?
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zubair ahmed  Posted On : Jun 20, 2010 8:40 PM
please send me weekly forecast for gold.