Quantcast
Other Stories

Gold ETP holdings continued their downward march, ending April at a record net outflow of 176 tonnes. This comes after having previously set a monthly net outflow record in February (111 tonnes) and brings year-to-dat..

04 May 2013

Commodity Online
Continued ETP outflows remain a key downside risk to gold prices in the near term; however, in Barclays' view, the vulnerability of further ETP outflows subsides should prices recover to above $1500/oz or equity markets underperform given the stronger correlation between the two.

Gold ETP holdings continued their downward march, ending April at a record net outflow of 176 tonnes. This comes after having previously set a monthly net outflow record in February (111 tonnes) and brings year-to-date net outflows to 343 tonnes, Barclays noted in a report.

This is much larger than the total net inflows into gold ETP products of 279 tonnes over all of 2012, and outflows represent 12% of the 2767 tonne peak holdings at the start of the year.

Gold coin sales from the US Mint on the other hand have hit their highest monthly sales volume since December 2009 at 209.5koz in April. May sales have already hit 10koz, and YTD sales are now at 512koz, compared with 753koz in all of 2012. Retail demand has bucked the trend seen across ETP holdings.

This week, Anglo American Platinum announced that it will now report the outcome of its restructuring proposal consultation on 6 May 2013, as opposed to the originally planned 30 April 2013. The bilateral consultation between it and the Department of Mineral Resources is still in the process of concluding.

Once announced, should they downsize the proposed closures and disposals, our platinum balance forecast would remain in deficit, albeit to a smaller extent.

Lonmin this week announced that it had to shut down its Number Two furnace while its Number One furnace is already undergoing a planned upgrade. Lonmin said that the repair will take between 30 and 40 days, but has not provided an estimate with regards to lost production; besides Number One and Two, the three Pyromet furnaces, which account for 50% of Lonmin’s capacity, continue to operate.

On the demand side, Q1 13 US vehicle sales declined unexpectedly to 14.9mn in April from 15.2mn in March (Autodata).

According to Barclays' economists, it was below both thier's and consensus forecasts and is likely a delayed effect of higher tax rates. In Japan however, auto sales saw a strong start to Q2 13, and according to the economists, increased 0.8% y/y to 309k units.

In PGM production news, Aquarius reported Q1 13 PGM production. At 45koz, platinum production rose 2% q/q but fell 18% y/y as fewer producing mines meant less production.

The company lost 1.5koz of PGM production during the quarter owing to a one-week safety-related closure. Palladium production rose 4% q/q but fell 14% y/y to 27koz while PGM cash costs fell to $849/oz, largely because of better q/q production.


YOUR RESPONSE
Click on the image to reload it
Click to reload image
COMMENTS (0)

@2013 COMMODITYONLINE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED