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Gold prices could average $1450 and silver prices could average $26 in 2012, according to Q1 2012 Metals Review by Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd.

27 Jan 2012

LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold prices could average $1450 and silver prices could average $26 in 2012, according to Q1 2012 Metals Review by Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd.

The year 2011 was a difficult year for the global economy and this impacted both base metals and precious metals complex. The Eurozone crisis, the budgetary crises in US coupled with monetary tightening in emerging markets led to a serious of sharp drops in base metals. Precious metals also failed to return to record highs.

Looking ahead to 2012, many of these problems remain centre stage. Europe has yet to extricate itself from a deep, if not existential, fiscal crisis. Ahead of the presidential election in November, the US may have to face budgetary problems of its own. Across the developing world, authorities must tread a fine line between persisting with anti-inflation policies long enough to contain price pressures and moving fast enough towards pro-growth policies to prevent an economic slump. There are therefore numerous dangers in the months ahead that the metal markets must be careful to avoid, Natixis Commodity Markets said.

In the case of gold it was perversely the budgetary problems experienced by US politicians in July that helped to propel gold prices to all-time highs of $1,921/Oz in September. “Subsequent to this, however, gold prices fell back sharply, and with the dollar regaining its status as the preferred safe-haven store of value, it may require more problems in the US to prevent gold prices from dropping back further in 2012. After their strong support over the last two years, it remains to be seen whether Chinese, Indians and central banks will remain such enthusiastic buyers of gold in 2012,” Natixis Commodities said.

“We would expect to see an improvement in industrial demand for silver from both the US and Japan in 2012 as both countries continue their recent recovery. The situation in Europe is less positive, while in China policy-makers may need to take some urgent decisions on what to do with the country’s photovoltaic sector. Investment demand proved both a blessing and a curse to silver prices in 2011, helping to push silver prices to record highs before seeing them crash to earth as the resultant increase in price volatility caused futures exchanges to increase their margin requirements.”

“After the volatility experienced in 2011, investors may be less inclined to take on a significant exposure to the metal this year. As such we forecast silver prices will average $26/ oz in 2012, followed by $18/oz in 2013,” Natixis Commodities said.


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COMMENTS (13)
Anthony B.
30 Jan 2012
My 9 yr old daughter could provide a more accurate article. Here's the reason this article is simply nonsense: Check out the mystery author--"Mr. David Gornall has been Chairman of The London Bullion Market Association since June 28, 2011 and serves as its Director. Mr. Gornall serves as Director of Precious Metals at Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd." They're based out of London, which is even more corrupt than NY. Notice that David Gornall didn't mention a single word about price manipulation. He also failed to mention, when the economies crash, the only SAFE place to put all that cash is going to be in precious metals! What an idiot! NATIXIS COMMODITY MARKETS LTD (unless they're long in gold/silver) WILL BE THE NEXT MF GLOBAL!
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Mike
28 Jan 2012
Did John Nadler write this article? That guy has had his head up his ass for the last 10 years.
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Jeff
27 Jan 2012
Brilliant analysis. All you people who think this is a ridiculous forecast probably don't believe in the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, and the Tooth Fairy either. They're all real! This forecast included.
Professor TI agree Jeff, the post is ridiculous, they should short the market if they believe in what they say, THAT WILL COST THEM A LOT OF MONEY. Silver is going to at least $60 this year
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The Loan Ranger
27 Jan 2012
There is one metal that does not get much media coverage - palladium; comparisons can be made with this medal and silver which may shed a bit on light of future pricing. Palladium had moved up four-fold from the April 09 low to April 2011. Palladium is used as an alloy in catalytic converters and it is the industrial demand that has propelled it upward on the charts. Silver is seeing increased industrial demand - solar panels, computer/tv screens, solder, batteries, circuit components, wiring, anti-microbial properties (used in hospital bedding, mattress, socks, water filters, band aids, door knobs, etc. - it is even used to spray the underside of linoleum to prevent mildew from growing. I used some of that linoleum and was able to glue it directly to my concrete basement flooring. Trillions of nano particles are being used annually and at the current low price it is not feasible to recycle the silver, so basically, millions of ounces get used up and simply vanish. Now, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that silver is cheap, cheap, cheap. Consider the spread between gold and silver at over 50 -1 and many pundits think that 15-1 is reasonable. With silver disappearing at a great rate, soon 1-1 will be more in line with reality. I think that silver will easily reach triple digits this year - if palladium can go up four-fold in a couple of years, why not silver. One hundred dollar silver in 2012 is easily attainable and in a few years you will look back and $100.00 silver will look cheap, cheap, cheap.
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Paul shinh
27 Jan 2012
Kitco could offer to complie a table of all this predictions from the analysts, brokers,investment houses over the last 5-10 years this will tell us who is on the ball -making money, and who has a broken crystal ball. John Nadler any comments?
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Jawad
27 Jan 2012
The company must be short on metals on their portfolio, rumors may works for them and the price may drop, but I will definately buy at their projections in 2012
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Paul shinh
27 Jan 2012
How many of their last years predictions been correct?
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Name
27 Jan 2012
Wow. Just wow. Anybody who listens to this forecast must have their head up their ass. Note to self: ignore all future predictions from Natixis.
Professor Well said, I couldnt agree more
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Joe blo
27 Jan 2012
Lol whoever wrote this article must work for JPM. Nobody in thier right mind can beleve the retarded projections they are calling for. it may temporarily spike down to the $20 area in fear of deflation but reality will kick in pretty fast when they realize theres a physical shortage and the big boys will buy up every single ounce they can. Eric Sprott is probably salivating at the thought of this temporary downward spike.
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Greg
27 Jan 2012
stay away from gold and silver..........there is not enough to go around!!.........
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BlownAway
27 Jan 2012
26 dollar silver in 2012 - 1450 Gold? and 18/oz silver in 2013?!?? Where on this planet is this author getting his data from? Basically EVERY OTHER economist/pundit in the industry is saying the *complete opposite* (ie- 35-70 dollar silver in 2012).
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VanillAnalyst
27 Jan 2012
$1,450? You foresee a worsening economic and fiscal situation in Europe and predict $1,450? And you do this.... for a living? Shorting Natixis. Scrubs.
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Mgriffith
27 Jan 2012
You guys must be the only ones who believe this. What garabage! Who is paying you to write this stuff?
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