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- Precious, base metals, Crude Oil may trade negative on weak global sentiments
- Taking cues from decline in spot gold prices coupled with weak global market sentiments, Spot silver prices decreased by 0.53 percent today. However, favourable economic data from Germany along with weakness in DX cushioned sharp fall in the prices.
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LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold prices could average $1450 and silver prices could average $26 in 2012, according to Q1 2012 Metals Review by Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd.
The year 2011 was a difficult year for the global economy and this impacted both base metals and precious metals complex. The Eurozone crisis, the budgetary crises in US coupled with monetary tightening in emerging markets led to a serious of sharp drops in base metals. Precious metals also failed to return to record highs.
Looking ahead to 2012, many of these problems remain centre stage. Europe has yet to extricate itself from a deep, if not existential, fiscal crisis. Ahead of the presidential election in November, the US may have to face budgetary problems of its own. Across the developing world, authorities must tread a fine line between persisting with anti-inflation policies long enough to contain price pressures and moving fast enough towards pro-growth policies to prevent an economic slump. There are therefore numerous dangers in the months ahead that the metal markets must be careful to avoid, Natixis Commodity Markets said.
In the case of gold it was perversely the budgetary problems experienced by US politicians in July that helped to propel gold prices to all-time highs of $1,921/Oz in September. “Subsequent to this, however, gold prices fell back sharply, and with the dollar regaining its status as the preferred safe-haven store of value, it may require more problems in the US to prevent gold prices from dropping back further in 2012. After their strong support over the last two years, it remains to be seen whether Chinese, Indians and central banks will remain such enthusiastic buyers of gold in 2012,” Natixis Commodities said.
“We would expect to see an improvement in industrial demand for silver from both the US and Japan in 2012 as both countries continue their recent recovery. The situation in Europe is less positive, while in China policy-makers may need to take some urgent decisions on what to do with the country’s photovoltaic sector. Investment demand proved both a blessing and a curse to silver prices in 2011, helping to push silver prices to record highs before seeing them crash to earth as the resultant increase in price volatility caused futures exchanges to increase their margin requirements.”
“After the volatility experienced in 2011, investors may be less inclined to take on a significant exposure to the metal this year. As such we forecast silver prices will average $26/ oz in 2012, followed by $18/oz in 2013,” Natixis Commodities said.
