Last Updated : 07 May 2012 at 23:05 IST
Gold selling will remain subdued as CME net longs hit 3 year low: Deutsche bank
Gold prices have been relatively stable at around $1,650/oz for the past six weeks. This follows similar stability in currency markets, where EUR/USD has been trading sideways since the beginning of February. While private sector inflows into physically backed gold ETFs have stagnated recently and gold net speculative length on the CME has been cut to a three year low, gold price has been supported by central bank purchases.
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NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Gold prices have been relatively stable at around $1,650/oz for the past six weeks. This follows similar stability in currency markets, where EUR/USD has been trading sideways since the beginning of February. While private sector inflows into physically backed gold ETFs have stagnated recently and gold net speculative length on the CME has been cut to a three year low, gold price has been supported by central bank purchases.
Since the start of the financial crisis, net speculative length in gold has been loosely negatively correlated with realised volume such that a reduction in speculative length in gold would coincide with an increase in gold realised volume. However, so far this year there has been a growing disconnect between the reduction in speculative length and the low level of realised gold volume.
The depressed level of gold volume may be attributable to a generalised compression in asset market volatility across all asset classes. This will be difficult to sustain if we start to see any break-out in current US dollar trading ranges.
The decline in net length in the gold market over the past several quarters has made for a much ‘cleaner’ market and it can be expected that despite near-term pressures in the market due to heightened EU risks (and thus the modest outperformance of the USD vs. gold), further selling could remain subdued.
Source: Deutsche Bank Commodities report
