MUMBAI (Commodity Online): With the Indian economy expected to grow around the 7% level in FY2012, the following are the sector wise forecasts.
Agriculture and allied activities growth estimated at 1.9% in FY12: Dragged by high base, the agriculture sector is expected to grow at 2.5%YoY in FY12, implying growth of 1.5% in 2HFY12 vs. growth of 3.6% in 1HFY12. Growth in mining and quarrying is estimated to decline further by 3.8% in 2HFY12 compared to -0.5% in 1HFY12 on policy related hindrances.
Manufacturing sector growth expected to decelerate in 2H of FY12: For the full year, industry segment growth is estimated to moderate to 4.5% in FY12 from 7.4% in FY11. Within industry, growth in the manufacturing segment is expected to slow sharply to 2.8% in 2HFY12 from 5% in 1HFY12. The electricity segment growth is expected to decelerate to 7.7% % in 2HFY12 from 8.9% in 1HFY12. Growth in the construction segment, however, is expected to accelerate to 6.8% in 2HFY12 from 2.7% in 1HFY12.
Service segment growth to pick up slightly in FY12: Services sector is expected to grow at 9.4% in FY12, implying growth of 9.1% in 2HFY12 vs. growth of 9.6% in 1HFY12. Within services, CSO expects growth in all sub segments to decelerate in 2HFY12 vs. 1HFY12.
Growth in fixed capex and consumption expenditure is estimated to decelerate in FY12: Fixed investment growth is expected to decelerate to 5.6% in FY12, compared with 7.5% in FY11 driven by slowdown in investments. Similarly, growth in private as well as government consumption expenditure is estimated to decelerate to 6.5% and 3.9% in FY12 respectively (vs. 8.1% and 7.8% in FY11). Net exports contribution to growth is estimated to be -1.8% in FY12 compared to +0.4% in FY11.
Source: Macquarie Economics Research
