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GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2012-13, is estimated at Rs.21,83,794 cr, as against Rs. 19,23,173 crore in Q2, 2011-12, showing an increase of 13.6 per cent.

30 Nov 2012

NEW DELHI(Commodity Online): India's economy grew at a lower-than-expected 5.3 percent in the second quarter ending September of FY 2012-13. The value of goods and services produced in Q2 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 12,93,922 cr as against Rs. 12,28,982 cr in Q2 of 2011-12. India recorded a GDP growth of 5.5% in Q1, 2012-13.

According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2012-13 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 24.9.2012, production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are expected to decline by 6.5%, 18.4%, 14.5% and 9.6% respectively during the Kharif season of 2012-13 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2011-12. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries.

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 1.8 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 4.1 per cent, 3.4 per cent and 10.5 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2011-12.The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.

The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12 are ‘construction’ at 6.7 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 5.5 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.4 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 7.5 per cent. The growth rates in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ is estimated at 1.2 per cent, ‘mining and quarrying’ at 1.9 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 0.8 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 3.4 per cent in this period.

Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-)0.9 per cent, (-)5.2 per cent, (-)6.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12.

The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 17.5 per cent, and 15.7 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12. The stock of telephone connections (both WLL and cellular) increased by 8.0 per cent in Q2, 2012-13 over Q2 2011-12.

GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2012-13, is estimated at Rs.21,83,794 cr, as against Rs. 19,23,173 crore in Q2, 2011-12, showing an increase of 13.6 per cent.

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent, 17.7 per cent, 10.3 percent, 6.1 per cent, 16.5 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2012-13, over Q2 of 2011-12. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.8 per cent during Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12.

“The 2QFY2013 headline growth print is in line with expectations and recovery of the services sector is supported by growth in trade, hotels, transport and communication as well as community, social and personal services (owing to increase in government spending). On the demand side, although growth has decelerated further to a 13-month low, the growth in gross fixed capital formation, indicative of the investment environment, bodes well for the economy,” says Bhupali Gursale, Economist-Angel Broking.


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