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A latest report by the Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia says that, ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels.

05 Feb 2013

NEW DELHI(Commodity Online): The possibility of a normal southwest monsoon in India has been predicted by some private forecasters. The prediction is due to initial favourable global weather patterns.

“There is an 80 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon this year, as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has so far been neutral this year,” Jatin Singh, founder and CEO of Skymet weather services to Business Standard.

One of the important factor that has a direct bearing on India’s southwest monsoon is ENSO. In the last 112 years, only in five years had a drought like condition prevailed despite an ENSO neutral condition, he added.

“The last time drought- like conditions prevailed despite a neutral ENSO condition was in 1979.
Before that, it was in 1974, 1968, 1920 and 1901. So, there is a reasonable chance that India might have a near- normal southwest monsoon this year,” Singh said.

A latest report by the Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia says that, ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels.

“Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn as well,” the bureau said.


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COMMENTS (1)
Prof. Khan
19 Apr 2013
It is going to be a severe drought condition, over the Indian Subcontinent in 2013.
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