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Rising open interest in September Silver futures at India's Multi Commodity Exchange suggests a bullish trend is emerging in the white metal

31 Jul 2012

By Amrita Mashar
AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): India Silver futures rose to a record high in January 2011 but subsequently it slipped to Rs 46,000 levels at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Selling was particularly intense towards the end of the year. But high volatility of Rs 1500 to Rs 2000 on a single trading day helped intra-day traders to book handsome profits.

The average trading range at present in a subdued market is Rs 500 on a daily basis which is quite disappointing for traders and investors to profit from the white metal.

Surge in open interest
The charts point to a sudden jump in open interest in MCX Sept futures rising to a 18-month high. This signifies fresh money is flowing into silver. Open interest means number of short or long positions left unclosed at the end of the trading day. In previous years, it has been demonstrated that significant rise in open interest preceded a rally in silver futures.

The Chart below shows that rise in open interest levels have given solid support for silver since 2010 and helped it to recover from bottom levels.

In month of July, open interest has surged to 18 month high, the levels last witnessed in January2011 but prices stays firm in the range of Rs 51500-54000per kg

As Gold is trading near to all time high at MCX. But Silver is trading at almost two year low levels. Rising open interest suggests that investors are steadily realizing the potential of Silver and building up positions, looking at bargain buys. In near term, I am expecting upside rally till Rs 58,000 and above till Rs 60,000 with strong support for Rs 50,000.

(Amrita Mashar is Manager, Bullion at Commodity Online Research and may be reached at tips@commodityonline.com, Courtesy: tips.commodityonline.com)

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03 Oct 2012
Yes you were right. because huge buy has been done in comex during the same time.
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