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10 September 2009 at 15:20 IST
India’s monsoon rain deficit may fall to 15% to 18%
NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): Contrary to the early forecast over the monsoon rain deficit due to the delayed arrival, an analyst with Indian Meteorological Department said that deficit is expected to narrow to 15%-18% against the early 20%.
Considering the weak monsoon rains about 20% below the 50 years average during the June to September, IMD forecasted a constant deficit of 20% but the improved showers in the last few days have changed the calculation.
The four-month monsoon season is crucial for summer-sown crops, including cotton, rice, pulses and oilseeds, as about 60% of the farms are rain-fed. The weakest rains since 2002 have raised concerns about a potential fall in agricultural output and a corresponding increase in farm product prices.
The northwest region is likely to get rainfall until Sept. 15, the official said. Currently, the likely scenario seems to be that the monsoon withdrawal would start after Sept. 15, and the rains would be likely to decrease thereafter, he said.
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