LONDON (Commodity Online): Contract iron ore prices are set to rise by 50% to $85.60 a tonne for the 2010-11 period after a much faster-than-expected recovery in iron ore and steel markets, Merrill Lynch said in a note.

Merrill’s upgrade — from its previous forecast of a rise of 15% — is, so far, the most aggressive of the investment banks. While many other banks have recently hiked expectations, their expected forecasts are centering more on a 20%-30% price rise.

UBS, for instance, is currently forecasting a 20% increase. Major iron ore miners Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are yet to settle annual benchmark contract prices that come into effect at the start of the Japanese financial year on April 1 with major steel mills.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto’s iron ore production surged 49 per cent to 47.2m tonnes in the fourth quarter as the Anglo-Australian mining group continued to reap the benefits from strong demand from Chinese steel mills.

Rio’s total iron ore sales, which include stakes in its operations held by third parties, rose to a record 61m tonnes in the fourth quarter, with calendar 2009 sales reaching a higher-than-expected 217m tonnes.

Analysts have this year upgraded earnings figures for Rio and BHP Billiton, the world’s second and third-largest exporters of iron ore respectively, on the back of higher prices for the ore.

The spot price for iron ore reached a one-and-a-half-year high this week of $131.2 a tonne. Excluding freight costs, spot prices are more than 90 per cent above the $61 a tonne 2009-10 contract price.

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