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Last Updated : 26 August 2010 at 14:40 IST
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Is fear gripping gold market?

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20. On that note, huge numbers of investors from outside America have purchased US residential real estate, believing they have purchased a great bargain, as they did with Enron, Nortel, Fannie, Freddie, and Citigroup. The performance results are highly likely to be the same, or worse, because there are liquidity issues in real estate, and carrying costs, that don’t exist in the stock market to the same extent. If you look at the action of public investors (who I’ve termed Elmer Fudd), they typically chase price except when the bull markets end in major assets. That’s the one time they buy en masse on price weakness. They rush in and buy the initial decline, sure they have some sort of “super bargain” on their hands. The real estate market might not recover for several decades, and arguably the bear market there has only barely started. The ancient bull market in bonds will die at some point, as Helicopter Ben moves from Quantitative Easing to gold revaluation, as the crisis intensifies. Elmer Fudd has been told the economic crisis is over, when in fact it has barely started. The markets crisis is 10 years old. The economics crisis is a baby. When the bond market is abandoned by the Fed, you could see a full blown panic in the real estate market.

21. That panic could lead to limits on bank withdrawals. All such action is ultra gold positive. Higher interest rates as a response to high economic growth rates are gold negative. Higher rates as a result of an implosion of the bond market are the ultimate gold positive, second only to all-out money printing and actual revaluation of the metal by the US Treasury and/or a massive coordinated central bank gold buy program.

22. You have all heard the joke made when there’s bad weather outside and the forecaster gets it wrong. “Look out your window, put away all the equipment, just look out the window and see the reality!” It’s the same in the gold market. When you look at the price chart and you can’t see any real decline on the chart, my question to you is, “why are you buying heavily when you can’t even see a decline?” This mantra applies whether you are using a short or long term time frame. For one trader a $50 move is huge, but for another it’s microscopic.

23. When you look out your market window, you need to spend time thinking, “do I see any price rise here, because if so I better do some selling”. The gold chart right now shows no significant price decline, so you need to wait till it does before ramping up your buys. Obviously my pyramid generator does that for you and forces you into that winning discipline. I would predict that by the end of this week, most of the “traditional buying season” for gold is forgotten and replaced with, ‘what’s wrong here, how LOW is this thing going, I’m burning!” At that point you will be accelerating your buys, if it happens.

24. If you don’t feel discomfort when you are buying in size, you are making a major error, and odds are 99% you will feel a great deal of discomfort after those size buys go underwater, as they are, here and now, for the “traditional buying season” gang. The traditional buying season is better termed the “Traditional handoff from the funds and retail price chasers to the banksters right before gold takes off” season, and the question is: Are you prepared? 

Courtesy: www.gracelandupdates.com
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NCDEX GUARGUMJODHPURJUL12 20 July 2012 contract was trading at Rs 0 . What's your view on it?
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