AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): As the arrivals of cumin seed (Jeera) is seen falling, over the next one month, traders are anticipating upward pressure on the prices, secondly, with lesser carryover stocks left in the warehouses over previous year, price movement is expected to be tight mainly when the crop scenario in other leading jeera producers like Syria and Turkey is still unknown.

“The huge reduction in carryover stock is mainly attributed to higher domestic consumption. However, we believe that this year also, the domestic as well as overseas demand will be on a higher side pushing the prices upwards post April,” said Arvindbhai Patel, past president and trader at Unjha Market Yard. However, much is still dependent on the crop scenario in Syria and Turkey, which will be known only by July this year, mentioned Patel.

India, world’s largest cumin seed producer is expected to have a production of about 27 lakh bags (each weighing 60 kgs) in the current season year 2009-10. The production estimates have been stable over past year. However, the carryover stocks lying with the warehouses have reduced significantly this year. Against the carryover stock of about 12-14 lakh bags last year, current year it is expected to remain around 4-5 lakh bags.



According to experts in the jeera trading at Unjha, prices are expected to shoot up by Diwali as the domestic as well as overseas demand is believed to remain strong over next few months. And with carryover stocks being less than half of last year, there is an anticipation of steep price rise by the year end. “Fresh inquiries have started coming up and domestic consumption is also expected to stay firm over next few months. Considering the huge fall in the carryover stocks and increased buoyancy by traders, the prices may also reach up to Rs.160-170 per kg by diwali from the current level of Rs.112 per kg. But much depends on the crop situation in Turkey and Syria,” said a jeera trader in Unjha.

Though Syria, Turkey and Iran have a much lesser level of production as compared to India, but these countries have an equally significant influence in the determination of world jeera prices.

Unjha, which is the hub of jeera trading in India exports to about 140 countries with primary export destinations including Singapore, Dubai, the US and Brazil. Last year, about five lakh bags were exported.

Jeera arrival season begins around February and continues till early May. However, arrivals have seen some slowdown this week. The daily arrivals in the yard have fallen from 30,000 bags a week back to 20,000 to 22,000 bags at present.

Jeera Futures on NCDEX traded lower on Thursday at Rs.11150 per quintal for March contract. The fall in the price is attributed to the profit booking at the higher end. However, with falling arrivals, analysts expect a steady rise in prices of jeera futures, which may stay firm for the next one month. April futures on NCDEX can firm up to Rs.12,500 per 100 kg.

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