Last Updated : 02 October 2012 at 10:55 IST
Kochi had no sellers for Garbled Pepper at 432/kg on spot despite buyers
Source :Commodity Online Editorial Desk
Author :Rakesh Neelakandan
Commodity Online takes a look at Monday's spot markets in pepper, cardamom and natural rubber
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KOCHI (Commodity Online): Kochi witnessed sales to the tune of 30 tons of ungarbled pepper at the rate of Rs.411/kg on Monday. There were buyers for garbled variety at the rate of 432/kg, but no sellers.
As per reports, arrivals from the primary markets have been robust. Brazilian production may get delayed this time around.
Pepper October contract on the NCDEX has been trading in a range without much of volume in last few trading sessions. Technically it is having an immediate support and resistance at 43100 and 43800 respectively. Increased arrivals in spot market may take the commodity to the southern direction in coming sessions. Break out of the level of 43100 can be considered as a good entry level on the selling side.
Cardamom prices have risen by Rs 50 to Rs 100 per kg to Rs 750 per kg as auctions at Bodinayakannur and Vandanmedu have remained suspended since September 24. The growers and even some Spices Board officials are keen to stop the auction process given various factors.
“There is stiff lobbying amongst people who participate in auctions and they do not allow prices to go beyond a point.” said a market player.
Meanwhile, dry weather conditions have impacted cardamom plantations in Idukki. Growers expect a drop of 40% in production this season against a normal production of 12,000 to 13,000 tons annually. If auction remains suspended prices are likely to rise further, sources said.
Prices to hit the roof if climate hostile, Guatemala output low
If the climate continues to maintain a tough patch, it is highly likely that cardamom prices would hit the roof. But it all depends on the Guatemala cardamom production. If Guatemala cardamom production too is low, then one will not have enough of cardamom to sell in the markets, meaning prices would skyrocket, sources said.
Newspaper reports indicate cardamom plantations in Guatemala have not recovered from the damages that have been suffered.
Now, with festive demand in the offing and export demand pending it can be safely assumed that India cardamom does hold a bright future.
Currently the carryover stocks and rupee appreciation is keeping cardamom tethered to a bearish trend.
Cardamom has been maintaining positive sentiment in recent days as export demand is expected in the ensuing weeks, ahead of coming festivities. Cardamom October contract is having a good support at 960. So buying around 985 with stop loss of 960 is a good trading strategy for coming session.
Immediate outlook however is bearish.
Natural Rubber has seen trading at the rate of Rs.195/kg in the Kottayam markets. MRF Tyres has been an active buyer except for the last week. “Their stocks have been low and although there are no exports occurring given the relatively weak rupee, imports are happening.” The farmers are also not keen to come out with stocks, a trader said. The world market is a buyer's market now and Thailand has come up with cap on exports to arrest drop in prices.
The overall market trend is bullish. Natural rubber on the TOCOM in Japan also witnessed an uptrend with gains to the tune of 5 Yen yesterday.
Natural rubber is having good support levels at 19100 and 18700 and an immediate resistance at 19600. It may start recovery from the levels near 19100 as the overall trend for medium term remains positive. Outlook is bullish.
- MCX Crude Oil bullish; resistance 5800
- MCX Silver sideways to bullish; resistance 44200
- MCX Gold sideways to bullish; resistances 28150, 28300
- MCX Natural Gas positive; resistances 231, 234
- MCX Copper bearish; support 407 and 403
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