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- Commodity
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- Advise
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- Entry
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- Agency
- Natural Gas
- 227-226.6
- Karvy
- Commodity
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- Contract
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- Trend
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- Pivot Point
- Rubber
- June
- Sideways
- 17003
- Cardamom
- June
- Sideways
- 738
- Turmeric
- June
- Bearish
- 5902
- Soy Bean
- June
- Sideways
- 3906
- Refined Soy Oil
- June
- Sideways
- 699
- Commodity
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- S1
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- R1
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- Trends
- Yen/ INR
- 53.8
- 54.16
- Sideways
- Pound/INR
- 83.77
- 84.17
- Sideways
- Euro/INR
- 70.94
- 71.48
- Sideways
- Dollar/INR
- 55.15
- 55.66
- Sideways
- Natural Ga..
- 226
- 230.65
- Sideways
- Crude Oil
- 5305
- 5385
- Sideways
- Precious, base metals may trade lower on strong dollar, rise in risk aversion
- Crude oil prices are expected to trade on the positive note on the back of expectation of decline in US crude oil inventories from API along with ongoing unrest in Middle East.
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By Kishore Narne
The knee-jerk reaction to the fiscal cliff resolution is positive for all the asset classes including gold. But sustainability of this strength is a bit doubtful. As the successful resolution of fiscal cliff would mean that there is no need of running towards the safety of gold nor the safety of USD, a weaker gold along with a weak USD would put additional pressure on domestic gold.
We expect gold prices to fall from 31100 towards 30800-30850 towards the end of this week. And eventually towards 30200 in coming weeks.
Medium-long term
Gold had started its consolidation phase by the end of 2011 and has been trading in a $1795 and $1526 range for more than a year subsequent to a decade long bull trend.
We expect this consolidation phase between $1780 and $1580 to continue till at least mid-2013 and eventually to go down towards $1290 levels.
In domestic markets, rupee appreciation towards the end of 2013 would add additional pressure on gold and we expect the prices to average in between Rs.27500 and Rs.28000 for the entire year.
Others
Our outlook on base metals remain positive for the short term, as growth gets revived in major consumer China as well as U.S.
Industrial metals could rise further pushing copper towards $8800 on the LME and domestically prices may go up towards Rs.468 levels.
Crude oil remains in a tight range experiencing pulls and pushes from either sides; the demand side is looking positive after a long time with gradual revival of global macro economic conditions but at the same time the market is also well supplied with top exporter Saudi Arabia still producing over 9.5 mbpd and U.S. bringing some of the new production on to the table in 2013.
This means the upside in crude oil could be limited at $96-97 for WTI.
The resolution of fiscal cliff has had a positive impact on all the asset classes, but mind you, the spending cuts are yet to be finalized which could have definite say in the growth of U.S. economy.
(The author is Associate Director, Head - Commodity & Currency; Motilal Oswal)
