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The Elgin/Franklin complex began ramping up output from mid-March after being offline for the greater part of a year and would eventually bring back at least 60 thousand b/d back into the market. Barclays estimates th..

13 Apr 2013

LONDON (Commodity Online): Non-OPEC crude oil supply may be reduced to 625 thousand b/d mark, almost 175 thousand b/d lower than March and almost 500 thousand b/d lower than January due to unplanned supply disruptions, according to the recent market analysis by London based Barclays.

Disruptions in non-OPEC supply centres continue to become less pronounced and constraints are easing, helping to alleviate much of the stress recently placed on the supply system.

The main developments that have led to this cut come from the non-OPEC centres shown below...

Sudan: The recent oil agreement between North and South Sudan has been honoured by both parties and as a result, barrels have recently started flowing from the south.

This output could ramp up to 150 thousand b/d in the coming weeks, though the barrels would not necessarily be available to the market straight away as they would only reach Port Sudan towards the end of May.

Barring any turbulence in negotiations, the country could return to producing over 300 thousand b/d before the end of the year, though as previously witnessed, there are risks that relationships could sour again.

UK: The Elgin/Franklin complex began ramping up output from mid-March after being offline for the greater part of a year and would eventually bring back at least 60 thousand b/d back into the market. Barclays estimates that currently the field is producing half of that, or around 30 thousand b/d).

The complex’s production capacity is 130 thousand boe/d, which Total expects to only fully recover by 2015; however, this is contingent on drilling new infill wells, which currently are only in the research stage.

Brazil: Brazil’s oil and gas regulatory body has finally authorised the offshore Frade field to be restarted following a significant spill as a result of damage to infrastructure.

The, field which was shut a year ago, would now be able to start producing from up to eight wells in the area. The regulator would monitor these wells closely before allowing full production to commence.

Assuming it does give permission, the wells could bring back
up to 70 thousand b/d, though the operators still have not announced a start date. The operator, however, expects production to restart relatively soon.

China: The offshore Penglai 19-3 field is restoring output to pre-spill levels of 125 thousand b/d, since having resumed production since the end of H1 last year.


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