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OPEC said in its monthly report for Ferbuary that World oil demand growth in 2012 was revised up by 45 tb/d to stand at 0.8 mb/d, reflecting higherthan-expected actual data for the fourth quarter.

12 Feb 2013

VIENNA (Commodity Online): The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2013 by 80,000 barrels per day to 0.8 mn barrels per day with the bulk of the growth coming from China.

OPEC said in its monthly report for Ferbuary that World oil demand growth in 2012 was revised up by 45 tb/d to stand at 0.8 mb/d, reflecting higherthan-expected actual data for the fourth quarter.

"Given some signs of recovery in the global economy and colder weather at the start of this year, the forecast for world oil demand growth in 2013 has also been revised up by 80 tb/d to stand at 0.8 mb/d. The bulk of the growth is seen
coming from China, which is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d. Other non-OECD countries will add further 0.7 mb/d, while OECD demand is expected to still see a contraction of 0.3 mb/d, although0.1 mb/d less than estimated in 2012."

Non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 0.5 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous month. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. The US, Canada, the Sudans, Brazil, Australia, and Kazakhstan are seen as the major contributors to supply growth in 2013. OPEC NGLs are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2013, following an estimated increase of 0.4 mb/d in 2012. In January, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources, representing a decrease of about 20 tb/d from the previous month.

Monthly market review-Jan

The OPEC Reference Basket rose by more than 2.5% in January to settle at $109.28/b, the highest monthly average since September of the previous year. The increase in the Basket was supported by restored optimism about the state of the
world economy, after strong data from major economies boosted the outlook for oil demand and lifted global oil prices. Financial optimism coupled with geopolitical concerns spurred a large wave of speculative buying in the oil futures market, helping accelerate the price move upward.

Oil prices were further supported by rising world stock markets, a weaker US dollar, healthy refined product markets, and enthusiasm about the increased flow of the US Mid-continent crude to the US Gulf Coast (USGC) which was achieved by the startup of the Seaway pipeline expansion. On a monthly basis, the OPEC Reference Basket increased to an average of $109.28/b in January, improving $2.73 or 2.6% over the previous month. However, the Basket was $2.48 or 2.2% below the level in the same period last year when prices averaged $111.76/b. 


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