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Pepper paradox: Stocks too low, prices too!

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Commodity Online
KOCHI: India’s pepper scene is alarming. If market reports are any indication, pepper stocks in India is so low that it won’t even last for five weeks. Still, the prices are slumping day by day at the commodity exchanges for the commodity.

This is a strange phenomenon pepper growers are facing now. In Kerala, pepper harvesting is in full swing now and the crop is yet to arrive in markets.

According to reports from Kochi traders, stocks in the country have come down to a historic low of 3,000 tonne.

This will soon create delivery problems at commodity exchanges and may result in trade losses.

Growers, traders and stockists are completely devoid of pepper, hence local supply to terminal market is absolutely nil for the past few months.

It is and indication of a serious shortage of pepper and this is happening for the first time in 30 years in India.

Delivery defaults are likely to occur in pepper trading towards the end of next month unless supply of fresh crop strengthens in next couple of weeks.

This may lead to the collapse of the market system since speculative trading is still quite active.

A leading commodity exchange is said to be on a crisis management exercise and is regularly in touch with leading export houses in the country contributing 90 per cent of the Indian pepper exports, for the last couple of days. The exchange is said to be in a turbulent situation as the stock position is so weak.

The high seasonal domestic demand is being met by the stock with the exchanges and it is interesting the domestic market is having a fresh experience of MG1 grade pepper.

Only the lack of overseas demand makes the market to operate without serious trouble. But this scene may change by mid-January.

To add to this fresh pepper stocks are not coming to the market now. The fresh crop is already delayed in kerala due to climatic reasons.

Harvesting for the season is very active in Kerala now. Normally, pepper harvesting begins towards November-end and supply is active by mid-December.

But this time as per reports from producing centres supply would pick up only towards the end of January.

Until then, both overseas and domestic markets should manage with the meagre stock with the Comexes. This is the paradox, pepper market facing currently. It is also interesting to note that even with poor stock the prices are on a collapsing trend for the last few weeks.
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