LONDON (Scrap Monster): Silver scrap supply is forecast to rise by almost 10% in 2011, thanks to growing receipts from industrial and jewellery sources and despite the structural slide in reocvery from photographic waste, the main source of silver recycling.
Further losss from photographic waste iwll dampen the anticipated gains (int he global total) currently slated for 2012, according to a Silver Interim Media Report advisory released by GFMS Thomson Reuters.
Total supply is expected to remain broadly stable in 2011, as growth in mine production and scrap offset lower government sales and producer hedging. Total supply is set to rise next year, thanks mainly to mine supply, the report added. Mine production is anticipated to grow by 4% for the ninth year in succession.
Gains are centred on Mexico (mainly form the ramp-up of Goldcorp's Pnasquito and the start of commercial production at Fresnillo's Saucito, China, Russia, while declines are limited, with Australia , Peru and the US the only three of note. Globally, output from primary silver miners is expected to increase marginally year-on-year basis with the majority of growth in 2011 driven by higher by-product silver production from gold and lead/zinc operations.
Global silver mine supply is expected to maintain its upward trend in 2012, rising to an eighth consecutive all-time high. Fabrication demand is forecast to rise by almost 4% this year to a new record high, with further, albeit more modest growth predicted for 2012. Industrial demand will reach a new record high in 2011, with a near 4% gain.
Silver Prices
Silver prices will average $45 an ounce in 2012 and possibly reach $50 by December while in 2011 the average prices between January to November 15, 2011 is $35.70 and for the whole of 2011 forecasted at $35.66, GFMS Thomson Reuters said. The key driver of silver prices continue to be investment demand which is set to continue into 2012. The main factors driving such demand were the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, inflatinary fears, loose monetary policies and a weak US dollar.
Courtesy: Scrap Monster
