PHILADELPHIA (Commodity Online): A survey conducted recently in the US has come out with the result that US citizens are no more worried about the economic woes and job losses as they think the economy is back on track.

The 41 participants in the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters projected growth in the US economy over the next five quarters.

Accordingly the survey participants are much less than anxious about the probability of negative growth in the fourth quarter, reducing that index from 23.7 per cent three months ago to 15.4 per cent in this survey. However, they see a weaker labour market than they did three months ago. 

Forecasters were asked to give their estimates for real GDP, the unemployment rate, the Treasury-bill rate (3-month) and the Treasury-bond rate (10 year) through 2012. 

The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.7 per cent this quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP falling 2.5 percent in 2009 before rebounding in each of the following three years.

Unemployment is now seen at an annual average of 9.3 percent in 2009 and 10 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011 and 8.3 percent in 2012. 

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

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