Last Updated : 09 January 2013 at 12:00 IST
Why debt-ceiling is not the real issue for Commodity Markets
Source :Commodity Online Editorial Desk
Author :Rakesh Neelakandan
“ QE3 may not be pursued beyond a particular phase.” said Vijayakumar, Investment Strategist at Geojit BNP Paribas. “as there is a semblance of stability in the markets.”
- Gold, Silver may trade weak; Crude Oil to remain stable
- Exchange-traded products in gold -- investment vehicles that give investors exposure to bullion through issuing securities backed by the physical metal -- have seen huge outflows this year.
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Markets since the beginning of its time is known for affiliated investor's herd mentality. While excessive energy and attention is routed to the debt ceiling debate that is unfolding in US, a silent liquidity killer is in the making.
The termination of QE3!
“The latest FOMC—Federal Open Market Committee-- meet mulled on this aspect.” said Vijayakumar, Investment Strategist at Geojit BNP Paribas. “ QE3 may not be pursued beyond a particular phase.” he added “as there is a semblance of stability in the markets.”
“And when you have less liquidity chasing the markets major research houses and investment banks predict gold prices to come down further..one of the reports I read expects gold to reach $1620 levels by 2014.” he recalled.
“See, the debt-ceiling is still an issue and if the US if at all it defaults, may prove to be catastrophic in nature.” he said. “It is a very serious issue.” he said, “but going by the past events, one should be aware that they would come up with some measure or the other.”
While volatility could not be ruled out in the days ahead, it is becoming clear that the debt-ceiling may not turn out to be the real issue.
“There could be market jitters...there is a fascinating news element to it, a dead line, a count down and all...making it more entertaining for the media to project.” he observed.
But how about Europe?
The worst may be over for Europe, he said. It depends on a great deal on data that comes out from Greece; its bond yields, debt-to-GDP ratio etc.
“Spain and Italy are also witnessing their bond yields coming down.” he said.
All these measures may have an impact on commodity markets too.
“Investors are warming up to a risk-on mode. People are moving into equities and commodities from fixed income assets like bonds. And if China continues with its recovery, then Base Metals may get further boost.” he pointed out.
“Gold and other assets would also remain in demand as inflation returns...dollar would also gain strength eventually.” he concluded the interaction.
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