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United States faces some "very challenging negotiations" between President Obama and the House of Representatives over the debt ceiling, which could mean a fiscal drag in the coming months.

09 Jan 2013

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Gold may have over-reacted to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee released last week and construed by markets to mean quantitative easing could wind down by year-end, said TD Securities in a commodity research note.

Gold fell on the news. The market may not stage a meaningful recovery in the short term with little U.S. economic data on the calendar this week and the Fed speakers scheduled to speak tending to be hawkish, they added.

TDS noted that, there are some reasons to be bullish on gold for later in 2013. "While we agree that the Fed will eventually unwind the monetary accommodation, it is too early to react to this possibility given current macro and political developments.”

"The economic environment around the world and in the U.S. is still quite poor." TDS looks for the Fed to keep buying $85 billion worth of mortgage-backed and Treasury securities per month for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the U.S. faces some "very challenging negotiations" between President Obama and the House of Representatives over the debt ceiling, which could mean a fiscal drag in the coming months.

This, and spending cuts demanded by Republicans, could mean an economy that underperforms expectations. This should reduce the probability that the Fed will tighten sooner, rather than later—reducing yield and lifting gold, TDS concluded.


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