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Import demand from developing countries is gaining but at a slower pace and hence the lower growth forecast compared to previous one made in April, WTO added.

19 Sep 2013

GENEVA (Commodity Online): World trade is expected to grow 2.5% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014 as against earlier estimates fo 3.3% and 5% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, according to World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Import demand from developing countries is gaining but at a slower pace and hence the lower growth forecast compared to previous one made in April, WTO added.

“There is a message for the WTO in this,” said WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo. “The past two years of sluggish trade growth reinforce the need to make progress in the multilateral negotiations.

“Although the trade slowdown was mostly caused by adverse macro‑economic shocks, there are strong indications that protectionism has also played a part and is now taking new forms which are harder to detect,” he went on. “Fortunately, there is something we can do about this. Negotiations under way in Geneva can address these problems, facilitating greater trade and opportunities to spur economic growth.

“I am encouraged at the level of commitment shown by WTO members. But much hard work remains in the coming weeks if we are to deliver a successful outcome at the ministerial conference in Bali,” he said.

There are several positive trends emerging in the global economy:

-Economic recovery is underway, economic slowdown has bottomed out; data from US, Japan, China support this view
-Eurozone debt crisis has eased
-US unemployment has fallen to 7.3% from 10% earlier
- EU unemployment rate high-- trade growth to remain below 20 year average of 5.4%
-World merchandise trade up 1.2% in H1, 2013 compared to 2012 but below 2.5% growth forecast earlier
-Develoed economies imports down 1.6% in H1, 2013
-Developing economies imports at 5.8% year-on-year in H1 2013 and expected to moderate to 5.5% in H2, 2013
-World trade to expand 4.5%, export of developed economies climbing at 2.8% while that of developing countries at 6.3%


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