Last Updated : 20 October 2012 at 14:15 IST
You can see $1,900 Gold by October end, if QE history repeats: Deutsche Bank
Source :Commodity Online
After QE1 and QE2, gold prices rallied for up to 50 trading days and by around 15%. If it repeated today, this would imply gold prices rising to $1,900/oz by the end of October,
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LONDON (Commodity Online): After QE1 and QE2, gold prices rallied for up to 50 trading days and by around 15%. If it repeated today, this would imply gold prices rising to $1,900/oz by the end of October, said Deutsche Bank, the Germany's largest bank, in a weekly commodities report.
Global gold prices ended lower for the second week in a row. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,724 an ounce, down 2% on the week.
According to the German bank, gold's performance over the past few days would, if sustained, suggest that the impact of this round of QE is fading earlier and more rapidly than previous QE episodes.
The past few weeks has also seen a significant compression in gold implied volatility, which has fallen to multi year lows. This reduction in implied vol has also been evident in other asset classes such as equities and FX. We would identify US dollar strength as the main risk to gold prices and the outlook for implied vol.
The bank also noted that, “gold to trade in a range in the coming weeks, adding that the metal does not appear to be getting the same boost from the third round of US quantitative easing as it did after the first two rounds.”
"We expect that gold prices could trade in a range over the next couple of months as we see a vacuum in terms of monetary action due to upcoming transitions/decisions in government in both the U.S. and China," they added.
"Somewhat supportive economic data (lately) from the US is also weighing on market sentiment for gold as early signs suggest that economic conditions may be normalizing," Deutsche Bank concluded.
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