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The  Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)  doesn’t differentiate between genuine growth and government-stimulus-based growth. And the stock market doesn’t care, either — at least in the short to medium term as the monster rally off of the March lows has shown.

Despite pumping trillions of dollars into the US economy, core inflation which denotes consumer prices without food and energy costs has actually decreased from 2008.  There are several reasons why there is no hyper-inflation including banks hoarding cash and US exporting inflation to China.

The commodities bull has already run a long way. Since Jan. 1, gold is up 20%, silver is up 50%, copper is up 100%, oil is up 110%, coal is up 90% and iron ore is up 60%. In a year of deep recession, that's a pretty good run.