Technically NCDEX Jeera is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.83% to settled at 12828 while prices up 245 rupees.
Now Jeera is getting support at 18723 and below same could see a test of 18482 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19143, a move above could see prices testing 19322.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up 1.31% at 18965 on anticipation of good physical demand. Lower stocks in the production centers due to declined production and low carryover stocks also supported prices.
However, good monsoon forecasts this year and current limited demand scenario in the market limited the upside.
The jeera arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year. As per data, about 10,688 tonnes of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI.
Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated.
Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year.
Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally. Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes.
The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, sources said.
--Jeera trading range for the day is 18480-19320.
--Jeera prices ended with gains on anticipation of good physical demand.
--There is good physical and exports demand while the stocks in the Exchange warehouse are diminishing.
--NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 9 tonnes to 1238 tonnes.
--In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 63.35 Rupees to end at 18555 Rupees per 100 kg.
Courtesy: Kedia Commodities