BONDS AND STIMULUS ARE DRIVING BIG SECTOR TRENDS AND SHIFTING CAPITAL
Commodity Online | February 25 2021
UPDATED 15:07:21 IST

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Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength. The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs.

 

We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse. The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently high-flying technology firms into other sectors (such as Banks, Financials, Real Estate, and Energy).

 

The deep dive in Bonds and the US Dollar aligns with the research we conducted near the end of 2020, which suggested a market peak may set up in late February. We also suggested the markets may continue to trade in a sideways (rounded top) type of structure until late March or early April 2021. Our tools and research help us to make these predictions nearly 4 to 5+ months before the markets attempt to make these moves.

 

If our research is correct, we may have started a “capital shift” process in mid-February where declining Bonds, rising yields and the declining US Dollar push traders to re-evaluate continued profit potential in the hottest sectors over the past 6 to 12+ months. This would mean that Technology, Healthcare, Comm Services and Discretionary sectors may suddenly find themselves on the “not so hot” list soon.

 

BONDS COLLAPSING WHILE YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE


The following TLT Weekly chart highlights the extended downward trend taking place in Treasury Bonds. This downside pricing pressure would usually support a rising stock market and moderately weaker precious metals. But given the way the US Dollar is also declining, we are seeing fear become more of an issue as the high-flying stock market starts to look quite a bit over valued. Rising yields also puts Financials and banking/lending near the top of the list for future profit potential.


US DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO FIND SUPPORT


The Invesco US Dollar ETF, (UUP) Weekly below chart shows how weak the US Dollar has been after the COVID-19 price rotation. The continued decline in price levels after May 2020 is a very clear indication that the US Dollar is reacting to the continued stimulus efforts as well as the decreased economic expectations.

 

Combined, the Bonds and US Dollar decline are raising the fear-factor among global investors and causing many to rethink where future growth and profits will originate. Many are landing on the Financial and Energy sectors right now.

 


FINANCIAL SECTOR BEGINS TO SKYROCKET HIGHER


The following Direxion Financial Bull 3x ETF (FAS) Weekly chart shows the incredible advance in the Financial Sector over the past 6+ months. Almost like a sleepy rally, Financials have been rallying while traders have been focused on Technology, Healthcare and other sectors that seemed hot. This shifting trend in sectors, and the associated shifting capital, suggests we may be nearing a tidal shift in sector trends – moving away from Technology and into Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and others.


Volatility is still 2x to 3x what we have seen 4 to 5+ years ago. This suggests any breakdown in trends could prompt a very volatile price correction/transition. As sectors continue to shift, we urge traders to pay attention to the risks in the markets related to this elevated volatility which seems to be present in every sector.

 

We believe we may be starting an extended “capital shift” process which may last well into March/April 2021 before real opportunities setup possibly in May or June. The markets will do what they always do, react to traders, capital, and global central bank influence. There are times when certain sectors enter a euphoric phase and there are times when the global markets revalue risk. We may be nearing an end to a euphoric phase and starting a revaluation phase.

 

This means many various sectors and symbols will present some very real opportunities for profits over the next few weeks and months. Marijuana, Cryptos, Metals, Miners, Financials & Real Estate appear to be leading opportunities related to sector trends. If these trends continue throughout 2021, we may see a revaluation/capital shift to propel these trends higher.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist



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