Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced its crop estimate for the year 2018-19 by three lakh bales from its earlier forecast to 312 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) as a severe water shortage in key growing regions such as Maharashtra and Telangana has shrunk the output.
The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 59 lakh bales while cotton crop for the Central Zone has been increased by 30,000 bales.
There is an increase in of 3.50 lakh bales for Gujarat state compared to the cotton crop estimate of the CAI made during last month while the crop for Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been reduced by 2.88 lakh bales and 7 thousand bales respectively.
The cotton crop for Southern zone has been reduced by 3.25 lakh bales i.e. 68.50 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 71.75 lakh bales made during last month.
The cotton crop for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh States are estimated lower by 2.50 lakh bales and 2.00 lakh bales respectively compared to its previous month’s estimate whereas the cotton crop estimate for the State Orissa is increased by 2 thousand bales compared to the CAI’s previous month estimate.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to June 2019 is 347.84 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 303.56 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019, imports of 11.28 lakh bales upto 30th June 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2018 at 33 lakh bales.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to June 2019 at 243.12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th June 2019 is 44.10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of June 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 60.62 lakh bales including 33.10 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 27.52 lakh bales with CCI, MNCs and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).
The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2019 at 376 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each consisting of the Opening Stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2019 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, which are lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carry over stock estimated at the end of the season is estimated at 15 lakh bales.