CAI retains 2019-20 production outlook at 354 lakh bales
Commodity Online | December 12 2019
UPDATED 10:40:24 IST

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Cotton Association of India (CAI) has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate.

The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone by 2.50 lakh bales from its previous month’s estimate i.e. 63.00 lakh bales as compared to 65.50 lakh bales estimated earlier.

The cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone has been lowered by 1.00 lakh bales i.e. at 195.00 lakh bales as against 196 lakh bales estimated during last month.

There is a reduction of 4.00 lakh bales in the crop estimate of Gujarat state, the highest producer of cotton in India, on account of damage reported to the crop due to heavy rains and pink bollworm infestation. This has resulted in uprooting of cotton plants by about 10% farmers in Gujarat who wish to migrate to other competing crops. However, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the cotton crop estimate for Maharashtra as migration of cotton crop from Maharashtra to other neighbouring states is not likely to happen this year due to the participation of CCI in the market. Also, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the crop estimated for Telangana state and an increase of 50,000 bales in the crop estimated for Karnataka now compared to that estimated during last month.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 is 84.65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 56.15 lakh bales upto 30th November 2019, imports of 5.00 lakh bales upto 30th November 2019 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 at 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th November 2019 is 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of November 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 29.65 lakh bales including 14.65 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 15.00 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 403 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each consisting of the Opening Stock of 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 32.00 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at their meeting held on 28th November 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales, same as compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 30 lakh bales.

 



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