The United Nations’ (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2018 to 2,601 million tonne, primarily due to higher estimates for wheat production in Canada and China. Nonetheless, the new forecast remains 2.1 per cent below the record level achieved in 2017.
“Global rice output this year is expected to surpass last year’s all-time high by 1.3 per cent, reaching 513 MT,” according to FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
World wheat production in 2018 is now forecast at around 728 million tonne, marking a 4.3 per cent decline from the previous year. Winter wheat crops, to be harvested in 2019, are currently being sown in the Northern Hemisphere, while in the European Union (EU), the United States and India, generally remunerative prices are expected to stimulate an increase in plantings.
The worldwide output of coarse grains is forecast at 1,360 million tonne, a 2.2 per cent drop from 2017. Coarse grain crops are currently being planted in the Southern Hemisphere countries, and early prospects indicate an expansion in maize plantings in South America.
FAO expects world cereal utilisation to rise by 0.2 per cent to a record 2,653 million tonne, spurred by higher feed and industrial uses of maize, especially in China and the United States. The use of wheat for food consumption is anticipated to rise by one per cent, while that for rice is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent.
Worldwide cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2019 are now forecast to reach almost 762 million tonne, some 6.5 per cent below their record-high opening level.
Total inventories of coarse grains are expected to fall for the first time in six years, while those of wheat are set to decrease by 4.5 per cent, with drawdowns to be led by major exporters. World rice stocks, by contrast, are expected to rise by 2.6 per cent to 176.6 million tonne.
International trade in cereals is now forecast to decline 1.1 per cent from the 2017-18 record level, with trade in both wheat and rice contracting. World trade in coarse grains is still forecast to remain close to the previous year’s record level, at around 195 million tonne, with maize volumes increasing while those of sorghum declining.