Global Coffee production is seen rising to a record 158.8 million 60-kg bags in 2017/18, up 0.7% from last season’s record production, as a recovery in robusta production offsets a decline in the arabica variety, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said.
Arabica Coffee production is seen falling to 97.3 million bags, down 1.1% from the 2016/17 season. That is partly due to a 6.7 percent drop in Brazil’s arabica output to 38.63 million bags.
“In addition to the expected biennial downturn of the Arabica crop, smaller bean sizes and an outbreak of the Coffee berry borer also contributed to the decline in production,” the ICO said.
After five years of expansion, Colombian production is also expected to fall 4.3% to 14 million bags, as heavy rains caused damage to the trees during flowering, the ICO said.
However, the slump in top arabica producers is likely to be offset by a recovery in global robusta production, which is forecast at 61.5 million bags, up 3.7% from the 2016/17 season.
This increase is mainly due to a rebound in top grower Vietnam, which is seen producing 28.5 million bags in 2017/18, up 11.6% on the prior season. Poor weather slashed the country’s 2016/17 output by 11.1%.
Increases in output from Honduras, India, Uganda, Mexico, Ethiopia and Peru are also seen boosting overall global Coffee production, as well as offsetting an expected decline in Indonesia’s crop.
Global Coffee consumption is forecast to rise to 157.6 million bags in 2017/18, up from 155.1 million
bags in 2016/17, the ICO said.
The ICO also boosted its forecast for 2016/17 world Coffee production to 157.7 million bags. In November, it pegged global output at a record of 157.4 million bags.