The world 2018/19 Cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 4.5 million bales, as consumption once again exceeds production. As per USDA forecast global production is expected to fall marginally, as area declines 1 percent.
Lower production in the United States, Australia, and China is nearly offset by higher expected crops in Pakistan, Turkey, and Brazil.
Global consumption is projected to rise 3.9 percent to a new record high, as a growing world economy drives mill use higher around the world. Projected world trade is raised from 2017/18, as import-oriented consumers such as Vietnam and Bangladesh are accounting for a larger share of world consumption, and China’s imports rise.
Ending stocks are projected down 4.5 million bales year to year, at 83.8 million bales, 67 percent of world consumption. An even larger decline is expected in China’s stocks, and stocks outside of China are expected to rise for the third consecutive year.
For 2017/18, both world production and consumption is increased about 300,000 bales from last month, leaving ending stocks virtually unchanged. Production is higher in Uzbekistan and Australia and consumption is higher in Turkey and Uzbekistan. Australia’s expected exports are 300,000 bales lower, while higher exports are now expected for the United States, Chad, Benin, and Uzbekistan.