World oil consumption will top 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in the next three months, putting upward pressure on prices, although emerging market crises and trade disputes could dent this demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The Paris-based IEA maintained its forecast of strong growth in global oil demand this year of 1.4 million bpd and another 1.5 million bpd in 2019, unchanged from its previous projection.
“Things are tightening up,” the agency that advises Western governments on energy policy said in its monthly report. “The price range for Brent of $70-$80 per barrel in place since April could be tested.”
US sanctions on Iran's energy industry, which come into force in November, have already cut supply back to two-year lows, while falling Venezuelan output and unplanned outages elsewhere will also keep the balance between supply and demand tight, the IEA said.
Demand from nations not in the OECD group of industrialised countries, led by China and India, is expected to rise by 1.1 million bpd to 51.6 mn bpd this year and by 1.2 mn bpd to 52.8 mn bpd next year, the IEA said.
Global demand will hit a high of 100.3 mn bpd in the final quarter of this year, before moderating to 99.3 mn bpd in the first quarter of next year, the agency said.