Global soybean production in 2019-20 is forecast to reach 355.4 million tonnes, a 2% year-on-year decline, as US soy harvest is estimated to decline due to low prices, high carry-over, weather issues, and uncertainty over trade with China, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In 2019-20, Brazil and US will continue to be the main global soybean suppliers accounting for nearly 85% of global trade, while China is projected to remain the leader in global soy imports at 58% of total purchases, the USDA said.
Brazil is expected to be the leading soybean exporter in 2019-20 with 75 million mt sales due to the preferential access to Chinese market amid the US-China trade dispute, the USDA said.
China soybean imports in 2019-20 are projected up 2.3% on year to 87 million mt, it said.
The 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are estimated to decline by 0.4 million tons mainly reflecting lower carryin due to revisions to 2018/19 balance sheets.
Beginning stocks for 2019/20 are reduced for Argentina and China offsetting higher stocks for the United States. For Argentina, stocks are lowered on a 1.5-million-ton increase to exports to 7.8 million for 2018/19 based on the recent pace of shipments. Beginning stocks are lowered for China due to a 1-million-ton decrease to imports to 85 million for 2018/19.