The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) estimates India's cotton production at 29.3 million 480 lb. bales (37.6 million 170- kilogram bales/6.4 MMT) in marketing year 2019/20.
Post’s MY 2019/20 production estimate is 200,000 480 lb. bales lower than the official USDA estimate.
Post estimates India’s marketing year 2019/20 cotton planted area at 13 million hectares, 300,000 hectares higher than the official USDA estimate. According to the weekly planting progress report published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MOAFW), cotton planted area across the country has reached 12.7 million hectares, five percent higher than same period last year, and nine percent higher than the five-year average. Planting in Central India (Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh) is two percent higher than last year.
Post’s area estimate of 13 million hectares represents a new record and surpasses the previous record of 12.8 million hectares in MY 2014/15.
Post estimates MY 2019/20 cotton consumption at 24.6 million 480-lb. bales (31.5 million 170-kilogram bales/ 5.4 MMT), 150,000 480-lb. bales lower than official USDA estimate.
According to the production estimates published by the Textile Commissioners Office (TCO), cotton yarn production has increased by four percent between April – July 2019 as compared to the same period last year. At the same time, blended and 100 percent non-cotton yarn production has increased by 11 percent, while cloth production by the mill sector has fallen by nine percent.
Mill consumption remains muted like last month where the fall in yarn prices due to weak domestic demand, lackluster export market coupled with high alternative fiber prices is negatively affecting the profitability of many small to medium-sized mills. Mills continue to stock limited cotton and maintain lean inventories. The trend is expected to continue for the new season due to price uncertainty. Average domestic wholesale seed cotton prices have fallen by four percent from last month and are marginally lower than last year. But Indian exgin (lint) cotton prices are almost 2-3 cents higher than Cotlook A-Index, prompting mills to augment their requirements with imports, USDA report said.