By Sam Nair
Rubber Weekly Outlook: Negative
Rubber prices extended its decline into the ninth straight week and is expected to fall to support at Rs.11000-11500 in the coming week. According to Rubber Board, production has grown by almost 22% which indicates that ample supply has been key driver of plunging prices, the drop in imports has also suggest that the market is unable to absorb the supplies. Technically, resistance Is seen at Rs.13400 and short term trend reversals are only expected above this level.
Cardamom Weekly Outlook: Negative-Neutral
Cardamom prices continued to decline and is currently trading above support at Rs.980 with the situation compounded by low volumes and diminishing demand. We expect prices to consolidate in the current range in the coming week and trade with a negative bias, a break below the support level should see prices decline to Rs.880-850 in the short term.
Physical market traders are reporting that strong production, incoming supplies and a sharp drop in demand has seen prices crash recently. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1070 and then further higher at Rs.1160.
Turmeric Weekly Outlook: Neutral
Turmeric prices have stabilized over the past week and is currently trading at Rs.5600. The bearish trend is still intact and any decline below support at Rs.5450 should be seen as short selling opportunities for price objectives at Rs.5000-5200 in the short term.
On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.5750 and a daily close above this level should see short covering carry prices higher. While reports suggest a slight uptick in demand from retailers, significant price changes are unlikely unless the production and supply situation improve in the future.
Soyabean Weekly Outlook: Negative
Soyabean prices fell below key support at Rs.2850 this week and has been holding steady in a range since then. The weekly outlook is bearish and we expect the downtrend to resume below intermediate support at Rs.2800 with further supports coming into play at Rs.2650 in the short term.
On the upside, a strong close above Rs.2850 should see prices move higher in the short term. Stronger supply on both domestic and international front has been the key driver behind prices falling in the short term.
(Sam Nair is Head of Commodities Research, Celebrus Commodities Limited)