By Sam Nair
Rubber Weekly Outlook: Neutral-Negative
Rubber July continued to consolidate within the range of Rs.13400-12400 this week. The weekly bias continues to remain negative and we expect prices to decline to key support levels around Rs.11500 before further recovery can be expected.
On the upside, a strong close with volumes above resistance at Rs.13400 should see prices rallying higher to Rs.14400-14800 in the short term. Recent reports indicate that the Kerala State Government has urged the center to increase import duties on rubber – this could have a positive effect on domestic prices. Prices have been struggling over the recent months due to a decline in demand in the short term.
Turmeric Weekly Outlook: Negative
Turmeric for July delivery broke below weekly support at Rs.5480 and is now expected to decline further in the short term. Prices are expected to decline to Rs.5000-4700 in the short term whereas on the upside, a breakout above resistance at Rs.5800 should see prices move higher in the short term. Physical market traders are reporting that prices may recover in the short term as supplies are being restricted as producers are not willing to sell stocks at lower prices.
Soyabean Weekly Outlook: Negative
Soyabean for July delivery is trading below important support levels at Rs.2850 and is now expected to decline further in the short term and test support at Rs.2600 in the coming weeks.
Soyabean prices have been in a bearish trend following the international markets and falling Crude Oil prices. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.3125 and a break above this is expected to take prices higher to Rs.3500-3600 in the short term.
Cardamom Weekly Outlook: Negative
Cardamom prices continued the free fall and is seen closing at Rs.950, its lowest level in a year. Physical market reports suggest a complete lack of demand from buyers coupled with continuously arriving supplies from producers as the key reason for the decline.
We expect prices to test Rs.860-800 in the short term driven by the declining demand, on the upside, a close above Rs.990 could triggered a short term technical rebound in prices.
(Sam Nair is Head of Commodities Research, Celebrus Commodities Limited)