The U.S Department of Agricultures' (USDA) Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) maintains Indonesia's 2017/18 Palm Oil production at 38.5 million tons, increasing 5 percent to 40.5 million tons in 2018/19. The projected increase is based on trend yield growth and revised area.
After a drop in 2017, Indonesian biodiesel production and consumption are expected to increase in 2018.
The re-opening of the EU market for biodiesel exports in March, increasing crude oil and gasoline prices and government plans to expand biodiesel blending to the mining and non-public transport sector will increase industrial consumption of palm oil. Accordingly, Post revises industrial consumption to 4.2 million tons in 2017/18 and 4.5 million tons in 2018/19.
Post maintains food use domestic consumption at 5.5 million tons in 2018/19, in line with population growth. Total consumption is expected to reach 10.36 million tons in 2018/19, about 4 percent above 2017/18 level.
Indonesia palm oil exports for the October 2017 to May 2018 period are 1.2 million tons lower compared with the corresponding 2016/17 period. In February 2018, India increased tariffs on crude palm oil (CPO) from 30 percent to 44 percent and on refined palm oil products from 40 percent to 54 percent. As a result, exports to India (the largest market for Indonesian palm oil) decreased 35 percent during the period of January to May 2018 compared with 2017.
Though exports to Bangladesh increased 38 percent during the same period, India’s increased duties negatively affected overall export volumes. Post revises 2017/18 exports downward to 26.5 million tons and 2018/19 exports to 28.5 million tons.