With global harvested area for cotton projected at its highest in 7 years, and yields rebounding in major producing countries, production is expected to rise 7.0 million bales to a near-record 125.5 million 2019-20, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report.
U.S. production is expected to rise the most, closely followed by India, while lower crops are foreseen for Australia and Brazil, and China’s crop is projected unchanged, the report said.
World consumption is expected to rise 2.6 percent to 125.9 million bales, slightly above the previous consumption record realized in 2006/07.
Projected world trade is raised from 2018/19 as import-oriented consumers such as Bangladesh and Vietnam are accounting for a larger share of world consumption, and China’s imports rise.
Global ending stocks are projected down 0.8 million this year, to 75.7 million bales, 60 percent of consumption. An even larger decline is expected in China’s stocks, and stocks outside of China are expected to rebound from their decline in 2018/19 to a new record level.
For 2018/19, both world production and consumption is decreased about 500,000 bales from last month, leaving ending stocks virtually unchanged. Production is lower in India, more than offsetting an increase in Brazil. Use is reduced in Indonesia and Vietnam.