USDA revises up world Cotton production forecast
Commodity Online | February 14 2019
UPDATED 11:53:35 IST

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World cotton production for the 2018/19 season is forecast up slightly, led by larger crops in China, Brazil, and Australia more than offsetting lower production in Turkey and India, according to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Trade is projected up on higher imports for China and Turkey.

Global cotton use is down, mainly in China and India on slower economic growth.

US production is down almost 200,000 bales and consumption is reduced 100,000 bales to 3.2 million bales. The US season average farm price is lowered 2 cents to 72 cents/lbs.

USDA estimates India's 2018/19 cotton production at 27.0 million 480-pound bales, down nearly 7 percent from 2017/18. The area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, down almost 2 percent from last year.

Yield is estimated at 480 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from December and down 5 percent from last year. The yield adjustment is due to the rainfall deficit and pest infestation in the major cotton producing areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra.

The month-to-month change is due to lower market arrivals and lower yields. Lower arrivals indicate reduced cotton production. The below -average monsoon rainfall coupled with pest infestation truncated India’s cotton harvesting.

After the first picking, trade sources reported farmers in non-irrigated areas abandoning crops in Gujarat in November.

Cotton is grown only in the kharif season from May to October, but harvest can continue into February.