India Cotton output is estimated at 28.7 million 480-pound bales by USDA for the MY 2018/19, down by 1 percent from 2017. Area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, up by 3 percent from last month and down slightly from last year.
The 3-percent increase in area is due to favorable prices during planting. Yield is estimated to drop to 508 kilograms per hectare, down by 3 percent from last month and down slightly from last year. The yield adjustment is due to the rainfall deficits in the major Cotton producing areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra.
The India Meteorological Department estimated that monsoon rainfall was 9 percent below the long-term average. In Gujarat and Maharashtra, the top two Cotton producing states, cumulative rainfall was down 33 percent and 8 percent, respectively, from the long-term average.
Precipitation was adequate during emergence, but the cumulative rainfall dropped to 50 percent of normal during flowering. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicated that crop vigor is below average in the major Cotton producing areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat.