Global cotton production in 2019/20 is forecast at 125.3 million bales, 5 percent (nearly 6.5 million bales) above the previous year and the second largest crop on record behind 2011/12’s 127.2 million bales, according to the US department of agriculture (USDA).
Larger production is forecast for a number of the major-producing countries in 2019-20, led by the United States (+3.6 million bales) and India (+2.5 million bales), the Economic and Research Service of the USDA said in its ‘Cotton and Wool Outlook’ report of June 2019.
For 2019-20, India is forecast to return as the leading cotton-producing country, supplanting China, which had surpassed India in 2018-19. For 2019-20, India’s cotton crop is projected at 28.5 million bales -10% above the previous year - as both higher area and yield are expected. India is forecast to account for 23% of the world’s cotton production in 2019-20.
Production in China is projected unchanged in 2019-20 at 27.75 million bales, as slightly lower area is offset by a higher national yield of 1,751 kg/hectare (1,562 pounds per acre); cotton production is concentrated in the high-yielding Xinjiang region in north-western China, where approximately 80 per cent of the crop is grown.
Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast at 8.0 million bales in 2019-20, 4% (300,000 bales) above 2018-19, as a rebound in area and a nearly unchanged yield lift the crop above the 3-year average.
Meanwhile, cotton production in Brazil and Australia is expected to decrease in 2019-20 as lower area and yield are projected. For Brazil, production is forecast at 12.0 million bales, 6% (800,000 bales) below the record 2018-19 crop currently being harvested. For 2019-20, lower cotton prices are expected to reduce area slightly while yield declines from the record set in 2018-19 - 1,747 kg/hectare (1,558 pounds per acre).
For Australia, production is forecast at 1.9 million bales, 21% (500,000 bales) below the 2018-19 crop, as low reservoir levels are expected to help reduce area and yield to their lowest in 5 years and 3 years, respectively.
World cotton harvested area in 2019-20 is projected at about 34.5 million hectares (85.1 million acres), nearly 4% above 2018-19. The global cotton yield is forecast at 792 kg/hectare (706 pounds per acre) in 2019-20, slightly above the previous year.