Ground Report

  • Soybean Processors Association of India is estimating Soybean production to be lower by 6.36 per cent at 6.93 million tons than earlier estimate of 7.4 million tons in Kharif season, resulting to higher Edible Oil imports.
  • Indian farmers are set to reduce the area for Soybean cultivation by up to 10% this year in response to falling prices, pushing up likely imports of Edible Oils such as Palm Oil and Soy Oil.
  • The overall import of Vegetable Oils during November 2015 - May 2016 up by 10%.
  • Current stock of Edible Oils as on 1st June 2016 at various ports is estimated at 0.87 million tons. Soy Oil imports during May fell by 38.44% to 0.18 million tonnes. Refined Soy Oil stocks at various ports of the country totaled at 0.21 million tonnes as on June 01, 2016.
  • India's Palm Oil imports fell by 27.54 per cent to 0.66 million tonnes in May and Vegetable Oil imports during May 2016 lowered by 25% to 1.024 million tonnes, Solvent Extractors Association data indicated.
  • Palm Oil planters in India hoping to increase acreage this year after the forecast of above normal monsoon rains. The acreage is likely to go up by 40,000 hectares totaling to 0.20 million hectares.
  • The market for Edible Oil in the country currently growing at 7-8% annually. India aiming to attain self-sufficiency in Vegetable Oils over the next decade. India generally imports 14.5-15 million tonne of Edible Oil every year to meet its domestic consumption, which is around 20 million tonne per annum.
  • Groundnut Oil exports from India declined sharply by 91.96% in 2015-16. Cotton farmers are turning to Groundnut farming which has increased Groundnut demand and pushed up the prices of Groundnut Oil.

Policies

  • India’s per capita consumption of Edible Oils stands at 16.09 kg or 23 MT/per annum for the country as a whole.
  • Domestic Edible Oil production has been hovering in the narrow range of 6-9 MT in the last 15 years which has trebled import of Vegetable Oil due to a consistent rise in demand.
  • Malaysia raised its Crude Palm Oil export tax to 6 per cent in July from 5.5 per cent in June.

Global

  • Ukraine exported 60,000 metric tons of Soybean Oil to China during September-April, an increase of 2.2 times compared with last year and up 8% compared with the whole previous season. China's Soybean Oil import share from Ukraine increased from 42% in 2014/15 MY, to 57% in the current season.
  • Oil World estimates that India has imported 0.42 million tonnes of Refined Soy Oil in May. Refined Soy Oil imports during January-March 2016 estimated at 1.8 million tonnes by Oil World. Palm Oil import accounted for 66 per cent of total Edible Oil import in 2014-15. This ratio is likely to have fallen in 2015-16 because of higher imports of Soy Oil over relatively costlier Palm Oil.
  • USDA forecast MY 16/17 Rapeseed Oil imports are 0.8 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year. MY 16/17 Soybean Oil imports are slightly lower at 0.7 million tonnes. USDA hiked 2016-17 Soy Oil inventories to 920,000 tons in June compared to 910,000 in May.

Outlook

  • Consumption of Refined Cotton Oil is on decline in the recent times due to poor Cottonseed availability amid dull production and stiff competition from Palm Oil. Moreover, Refined Cotton Oil and Soy Oil price difference has narrowed significantly and now both Vegetable Oil are available around similar rates.
  • Groundnut Oil prices gained smartly on the back of short supply of nuts for crushing. The prices have reached a two-year high mark on account of higher demand, especially from farmers, who are buying Groundnut for sowing in ensuing Kharif season. Apart from Gujarat, farmers from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are also procuring Groundnut for sowing.
  • Gujarat state imposed ceiling price of Rs 2125 + 5% VAT per tin, on Groundnut Oil for 3 months. Groundnut Oil may correct in near term, but downside will be capped due to low availability of Groundnut Seed for crushing and supply of other Edible Oil is easily available.
  • Mustard Oil prices may witness firm trend till end of the July due to price disparity. Presently, prices gap of Mustard Oil against Soy, Canola and Rice Bran Oil is Rs.18-20/kg up. Mustard Oil prices may hike by Rs.20-50/10 kg by the end of July. Demand for Mustard Oil generally improves during the rainy season and further to it, demand from pickle industry is also supporting Mustard Oil prices.
  • Delayed sowing of seeds may help Soy, Groundnut and Cottonseed Oil prices in the days to come.
  • Overseas cues are not encouraging and that has forced domestic buyers to stay sidelined and wait for the trend to clear. At the same time, Indian importers at current prevailing rates in the domestic markets are facing disparity and hence, demand is not very enthusiastic at the moment.
  • Edible Oil prices likely to be volatile following Rupee movement on expectation of timely rainfall. Strong Rupee makes import landing cost cheaper at local ports.

image