Monthly Prices Movement

  • Wheat prices traded mixed in major markets across the country. Demand remained firm for Wheat mainly from flour mills and supply was low in the markets which made the sentiments.

  • Rice prices in India, Thailand and Vietnam, the world's biggest exporters of the grain, have been generally on a downward trend starting in late July as buyers have been absent while supplies increase.

Ground Report

  • Food Grain production of India in 2015-16 is expected at 252.22 million tonnes which is higher than previous year due to bumper Wheat crop, according to the fourth advance estimate by India government.

  • India’s Cereal acreage in 2015-16 Kharif season rises to 54.606 million hectares , according to data by ministry of agriculture.

  • India likely to be the biggest Rice exporter next year by pushing down Thailand, said Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). Price competition among the major exporters, increased Rice cultivation in Thailand, Vietnam and India and purchasing slowdown among importing countries will help India’s export.

  • USDA estimates India's Rice production to reach 105 million tonnes from 44 million hectares in 2016-17.

  • India's Rice exports for the first five months of calendar year 2016 were 4.4 million tonnes due to competitive prices and revival of demand for non-Basmati Rice in African countries.

  • Basmati acreage of India is expected to fall as the major growing areas as the authorities are enhancing area under aromatic varieties of crop as part of crop diversification programme.

  • Basmati acreage in Punjab is expected to dip 30 per cent due to low prices fetched by growers and problems faced in sowing of high-yielding 1509 variety last year, said Punjab Rice Millers and Exporters Association.

  • Rice procurement estimate of the country finalised at 33 million tonnes during Kharif Marketing Season 2016-17.

  • India's Maize production for 2016/17 is expected to rebound to 24.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month estimates, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Policies

  • Central government of India have requested State Governments to adopt the system of e-procurement for Rice and integrate it with Online Procurement Monitoring System (OPMS) of Food Corporation of India.

  • Vietnam will reduce low-quality white Rice export proportion to 15 percent by 2020 and is making plans to develop the Rice exports of the country by restructuring its export Rice products,as per Ministry of Industry and Trade.

  • China has decided to resume 13 percent tax discount for exporting 10 Corn by-products starting from September 1, according to the Ministry of Finance aimed to clear the huge Corn stockpile in China.

Global

  • International Grains Council (IGC) revised the Grain production forecast to 2.069 billion tonnes in 2016-17.

  • World Maize production in 2016-17 was uplifted by 13 million tonnes to a record 1.03 billion tonnes and Wheat production is pegged at record top of 743 million tonnes in 2016-17 by IGC.

  • USDA estimates Global Rice production at 481.1 million tons (milled basis) in 2016/17 and global Rice consumption estimate is lowered by 1.8 million tons to 478.8 million tons.

  • France is expecting the worst Wheat harvest in three decades this year due to heavy rains and lack of sunlight, Agriculture Ministry stated. Wheat output is expected at 29.1 million tonnes by France this year.

  • Russia's Wheat output is expected at 72.0 million on excellent growing conditions throughout the country and harvest reports showing very high yields.

  • Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) stated that Rice exports increased 12.1 percent in the first six months of this year to five million ton.

  • Maize acreage of Argentina increases by 25% in 2016/17 and reaches 4.5 million hectare and , according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

  • USDA pegged Argentina's Maize production at a record 36.5 million tons in 2016/17 crop year.

  • Barley production of the Canada is expected to rise 5.8% and reach 8.7 million tonnes in 2016, as per Statistics Canada report.

  • National information center of Grain and oil crops of China (CNGOIC) stated that the country's Wheat imports rose by 22.7% during January to July 2016.Imports of Maize by China during the period fell by 22% to 2.9 million tonnes.

  • Statistics Canada reports that Wheat production of Canada is expected to increase 10.5% in 2016 and reach 30.5 million tonnes compared to the previous year.

Outlook

  • Maize prices in India have more or remained stable on spot basis. There is still some Maize with stockists and with early Maize planted in areas, which received good pre-monsoon rains, arrivals could start early in mid-September, which will help stabilize prices further.

  • For the upcoming session, Maize is expected to trade in range bound level with negative bias. Good crop condition in major Maize growing regions may result into better production this season which might be all time high, it may have negative impact on futures prices.

  • As for Wheat, part of the staple diet for so many Indians, its price in the Delhi market has risen by 16% since April. It appears the prices would stay firm, as supply is dwindling.

  • Food Corporation of India has revised upper limit of Wheat that a bulk consumer may buy at a single e-auction in open market sales, from 5,000 tonnes till now to only 500 tonnes. The aim is to ensure against hoarding by bulk buyers, with apprehension of a repeat on what had happened with Pulses last year and then for Sugar, where a situation of plenty got converted to scarcity.

  • With rise in festive demand, Wheat prices have regained recently and traders are looking positive tone forward anticipating weak supply as Food Corporation of India (FCI) has reduced quantity of Wheat for e-auction in Madhya Pradesh.

  • In the month of July, Wheat stock with FCI was recorded at 301.81 lakh tonnes which reduced to 268.79 lakh tonnes in August.

  • Government may consider reducing import duty on Wheat in case of price hike only. However, the minister claimed sufficient stocks of Wheat with government agency, so there is least chance of any reduction in import duty right now.

  • In coming days, arrivals may increase from fields and there is possibility of further pressure. However, it will hardly impact Wheat prices as demand is expected to remain firm.

  • Rice market of Uttar Pradesh is receiving regular demand from Gujarat while demand from other lines is appearing slack. Meanwhile, standing Rice crop in the field is reported to get spoiled in flood affected areas.

  • Basmati Rice prices unlikely to fall sharply due to expectations of lower production during the current Kharif season. Prices to improve as exports demand is likely to pick from October-November supported by expectations of decline in production.

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