Monthly Prices Movement

  • Pulses prices gained smartly throughout the month at the various markets across the country despite of various government measures. However, prices have been declining since last 10 days in the spot markets on supply pressure and poor demand at the higher level.

Ground Report

  • The announcement by the government that a determined drive is launched to source Pulses from Mozambique, Malawi and Myanmar countries via the government-to-government route—through PSUs—officially confirms that India desperately needs Pulses due to continuous decline in its annual output.

  • India's Pulses output is likely to rise 18% to around 20 million tons in 2016-17, after two years shortage which could ease the pressure on price.

  • India Pulses output in 2015-16 crop year decreased to 17.06 million tons on poor monsoon. In 2014-15 crop year Pulses output declined to 17.15 million tons from 19 million tons. The annual domestic demand for pulses in India is at 23.5 million tons.

  • In order control the price hike and to boost the domestic supply, India is likely to import 5 million tons of Pulses through private traders during April-December period of this fiscal. India imported 5.78 million tons in the entire 2015-16 fiscal year to meet the domestic demand.

  • India has approved long-term contract with Mozambique for import of pulses either through private channels or Govt-to-Govt sales through State Agencies.

  • Consumers turning to the newer and cheap varieties of Pulses such as Dun Peas, Green Lentils and Yellow Peas as Tur Dal prices are rising. If the trend continues in Tur dal, the demand could rise to 2.5-3 million tons in the coming years. Similarly, import of Green Lentils also expected to grow next year from 0.15-0.17 million tonnes at present.

  • The highest gains have been recorded in Pulses, where the sowing area has increased 39% to 9.01 million hectare so far in the 2016-17 Kharif season with Indian state of Karnataka on top. Urad, Tur and Moong sowing has been reported higher by 30.77%, 53.16% and 43.84% so far.

  • Farmers in Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat are planting Pulses this Kharif season, largely Urad because of better prices and concerns of Cotton crop failure in North West India, while in Gujarat it was delay in Monsoon rains.

  • Tur sowing coverage in Punjab increased five times to 15,000 hectares against 3,000 hectares in the corresponding year ago period, according to agriculture department’s latest coverage report.

  • Gujarat Pulses sowing area increased 58.01% to 0.39 million hectares from 0.25 million hectares same period last year. Tur and Moong areas of Gujarat increased 48.01% and 80% respectively.

  • Overall Pulses sowing in Maharashtra has gone up to 2.35 million hectares form 1.49 million hectares last year.

  • Arhar was sown on 0.85 million hectare in Maharashtra compared to average area of about 1.2 million hectares. This year, the area has gone up to 1.394 million hectares.

  • Pulses area in Telangana has increased 58.4% to 0.496 million hectares from 0.313 million hectares same period last year.

  • Tamil Nadu planned to increase Pulses production and likely to increase the acreage to 21,303 hectares during the 2016-17 financial year.

  • India looking to import Pulses from Myanmar and African nations to counter a domestic shortfall of 7.6 million tonnes that has driven local prices of key Pulses like Chickpea to a record high.

  • More purchases by India, the world's top consumer of Pulses, could help the country rein in its headline inflation, which hit a near two-year high in June.

Policies

  • The government of India had set up a committee to look into the possibility of increasing the minimum support price (MSP) of pulses and giving additional bonuses to farmers for their production.

  • India signed MoU with Mozambique to imports Pulses, which will reach 0.2 million tons in the next five years.

  • Indian government decided to increase the buffer stock to 2 million tons from 0.8 million tons.

  • During the year 2016-17 under National Food Security Mission (NFSM) a sum of Rs. 1100 crore has been earmarked for Pulses programs out of the whole allocation of Rs. 1700 crore by the central government.

  • India directed National Cooperative Consumers Federation of India (NCCF) to sell Tur and Urad at Rs 120/kg via mobile vans in the national capital region.

Global

  • Arhar and Urad, two popular varieties of Pulses in India, are in growing demand these days. To meet this demand, the India will be sourcing Pulses from Mozambique. At present, India imports one lakh tonnes of these Pulses, and as per the MoU, it would be doubled to two lakh tonnes by 2020-21.

  • India has planned to import 200000 tons of Arhar Dal from Mozambique. The imports from Mozambique by India will be 100000 tons in the first year, 123000 tons in the second and making it to a total of 200000 tons in the next five years.

  • Area seeded to Lentils in Canada in 2016-17 expected to increase by 30 percent to a record 2.1 million hectares.

  • Agriculture Canada has increased its forecast for 2016-17 ending stocks of Lentils to 850,000 tonnes, up 200,000 from the June estimate.

  • With the larger planted area of 5.83 million acres, this year’s crop is now projected at 3.7 million tonnes, versus 3.25 million in June and 2.37 million last year. The additional expected production is only partially offset by a 200,000-tonne increase in the Lentil export forecast to 2.6 million tonnes, and a bump in expected domestic usage, Ag Canada said.

Outlook

  • Higher sowing of Kharif Pulses like Arhar and Urad can help tame prices which shot up over the past year due to deficit rains impacting production in 2014 and 2015. These levels looks attractive for buying Tur and Urad and demand expected to emerge at any point of time as festivities are down the line in days ahead besides expected regular month end demand.

  • The import of Tur from Mozambique by India, which is expected to hit the domestic market by October-November, in all likelihood is to keep prices under control.

  • Farmers' enthusiasm towards sowing of Urad can be attributed to the recent increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Indian farmers have shifted from other crops like Cotton and Oilseed towards Urad for higher MSP and bonus.

  • Moong prices likely to trade range-bound for this week and for the days to come. Overall the world supply is expected to surge which would weigh on Masoor prices once the shipments start arriving at the Indian ports which is likely from September.

  • Chana arrival is entering into lean period and supplies may drop ahead. Generally, farmers sell Chana in July for the arrangement of sowing of Kharif crop and other requirements. There is no major Chana stock with farmers to influence the market prices. However, selling pressure in Chana would be temporary and demand is expected to emerge near Rs.7500-7600/100 kg level.

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) stated that the export price for Australian Chickpeas will drop below $700 a tonne by September next year. This season, growers have seen Chickpea and Lentil prices soar to $1200 a tonne due to strong demand from India, the world's largest pulse consumer.

  • Indian farmers have battled to maintain local production with a string of poor monsoon seasons, while favorable conditions in Australia have seen more growers turn to Pulses. NAB warns that in addition to Indian production returning to normal levels, and Canadian production rises, the outlook for Australian prices is poor.

  • Over 90% of the Chickpea and Lentil crop is exported to India, where strong demand has seen local production of Chickpeas this season jump 33% to 1.35 million tonnes.

  • Unless India takes a 360 degree view on Pulses, even a combination of one good year of monsoons in 2016 and government-to-government pacts with African countries are unlikely to solve the Pulses' conundrum for the long term.

image